TLDR
- Bitcoin dropped 0.9% to around $64,139 on Monday due to rising U.S.-Iran tensions and interest rate concerns
- BTC remains roughly 50% below its October 2025 record high above $126,000
- U.S.-listed Bitcoin spot ETFs pulled in $273 million over two weeks, but that barely offsets the $8 billion in outflows over the prior eight weeks
- Ethereum spot ETFs outperformed Bitcoin ETFs last week, recording $105 million in net inflows vs. $75.67 million for Bitcoin
- Analyst Daan Crypto notes BTC is still “caught in a $60K choppy price range” until it reclaims the weekly 200 EMA
Bitcoin fell 0.9% to $64,139 on Monday morning as a mix of geopolitical tension and interest rate concerns kept traders cautious. The drop continued a pattern that has kept BTC range-bound for most of 2026.
The main driver was renewed conflict between the U.S. and Iran. The two countries exchanged strikes over the weekend, and the U.S. was reported to be broadening the scope of its attacks after at least three American service members were killed. Iran responded by continuing attacks on Gulf countries and U.S. bases in the region.
🇺🇸NOW: PRESIDENT TRUMP ADDRESSES ESCALATING IRAN CONFLICT
“We are now doing a FAR bigger job, we were on a little job stopping them from having a certain capability”
“But now, we’re just ENDING it”
“Ending any chance where they can have a nuclear missile.
“If you look at it,… pic.twitter.com/QE4lEMEwz5
— Coin Bureau (@coinbureau) July 20, 2026
The conflict caused oil prices to spike, partly because fighting has disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Higher oil prices raise energy-driven inflation concerns, which could push the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.
The Fed is expected to hold rates steady at its July meeting. But several Fed members have recently warned that rates may need to go higher to tackle sticky inflation. Higher rates are generally bad for assets like Bitcoin that offer no yield.
ETF Inflows Return, But Recovery Is Thin
Bitcoin spot ETFs in the U.S. recorded $75.67 million in net inflows in the week ended June 17. That followed $197.40 million the week before, bringing the two-week total to $273 million.
Ethereum Spot ETFs Recorded $105M in Net Inflows Last Week
From July 13 to 17 (ET), Ethereum spot ETFs recorded net inflows of $105 million, Bitcoin spot ETFs $75.67 million, SOL spot ETFs $948,200, and XRP spot ETFs $6.78 million, while HYPE spot ETFs saw $7.26 million in net… pic.twitter.com/SMyaIyrQBH
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) July 20, 2026
That two-week run ended an eight-week streak of outflows totaling more than $8 billion. Newsletter Ecoinometrics called the shift a sign of a “healthier balance” in ETF flows, saying the change suggests it is not just a temporary bounce.
However, the $273 million two-week total is only slightly more than the smallest single-week outflow during that slump, which was $226.84 million.
Crypto analysis firm BRN said investors should watch for a sustained multi-week positive trend before concluding that institutional capital has returned in force.
Analyst: BTC Still Stuck in Choppy Range
Crypto trader Daan Crypto (@DaanCrypto) noted on X that Bitcoin is closing another weekly candle above the Weekly 200 MA. He said a strong push higher would be needed to reclaim the Weekly 200 EMA before the chart becomes more interesting. Until then, he described BTC as “just caught in this $60K choppy price range.”
$BTC Looks like it is closing another weekly candle above the Weekly 200MA.
To really get this interesting you want to see a strong push higher now to retrace that last leg down and get back above the Weekly 200EMA.
Until then, we’re just caught in this $60K choppy price range. https://t.co/gIHXBWp3UM pic.twitter.com/6ycuJ4K1v7
— Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) July 19, 2026
Bitcoin’s price has stabilized between $64,000 and $65,000 in recent days, sitting roughly 50% below its all-time high of over $126,000 set in October 2025.
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