Bitcoin appears to be entering the final stages of its recent downtrend, according to market analysis from Alphractal founder Joao Wedson.
This transition is characterized by a “final selling phase,” consisting of a preliminary support phase, during which volume begins to swell, and price spreads widen, followed by an inevitable selling climax.
In this scenario, panic selling by retailers is typically absorbed by institutional players, often resulting in prices closing well above the session lows and trapping late-stage short sellers. After this stage, the market is expected to enter a multi-month accumulation period, with a definitive price bottom potentially crystallizing within the next 90 days.
Meanwhile, exchange netflow has shifted from a surplus of 2,724 BTC to a deficit of 907 BTC, signaling that immediate spot-selling pressure is beginning to ease.
While open interest has climbed approximately 4.75% to $21.58 billion, leverage has stayed within manageable bounds rather than reaching historically overheated levels. With the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio at 1.129, valuation pressure is relatively low, suggesting the asset is not yet overstretched.
 
Bitcoin currently trades at $61,987, up 1.20% and outpacing the market’s current stagnation. This recovery was catalyzed by a reversal in institutional sentiment, as spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their first net inflows in over ten days, injecting $221.7 million into the ecosystem.
Moreover, this influx of capital helped trigger a derivatives-led short squeeze, liquidating approximately $450 million in short positions and fueling Bitcoin’s bounce. The move was also supported by cooling U.S. labor market data, which eased concerns regarding Federal Reserve rate hikes.
Moving forward, the $60,000 level is the critical line in the sand. If bulls successfully defend this support, the asset may test resistance between $62,000 and $62,523. However, a failure to hold this key level could invite a retest of the $58,000 annual low, especially as the approaching U.S. Independence Day holiday is likely to drain market liquidity.
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