Bitcoin ETFs lose $648M as analysts warn of weak demand

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded their biggest single-day outflows since late January after investors pulled nearly $650 million from the products as Bitcoin slipped below $78,000 amid rising geopolitical and inflation concerns.

According to SoSoValue data, the ETF segment registered $648.6 million in net outflows on Monday, extending last week’s cumulative withdrawals to roughly $1 billion after a six-week inflow streak came to an end. 

BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for the largest share of the exits with $448.3 million in outflows, while Ark & 21Shares’ ARKB lost $109.6 million. Fidelity’s FBTC also posted $63.4 million in withdrawals, with products from Bitwise, VanEck, Invesco, and Franklin Templeton ending the session in negative territory.

Pressure on Bitcoin intensified after the asset dropped below $77,000 over the weekend as renewed tensions between the U.S. and Iran pushed oil prices higher and revived concerns that inflation could remain elevated for longer than markets had anticipated. 

By Tuesday, Bitcoin (BTC) was still trading near the monthly open level around $77,000, an area Bitfinex analysts described as critical for determining whether the market’s recovery structure can remain intact.

Bitfinex warns institutional demand is weakening

In a market report shared with crypto.news, analysts at digital asset exchange Bitfinex said the latest decline has exposed weakening demand conditions beneath the crypto market. The report argued that the two main drivers of marginal buying activity, spot Bitcoin ETFs and yield-focused crypto products such as STRC, are both losing momentum at the same time that macroeconomic conditions are becoming more difficult.

Liquidity conditions have now deteriorated to their weakest level since early February, the analysts said, leaving Bitcoin increasingly vulnerable to external shocks and interest rate volatility. Their report added that the market no longer shows the same level of aggressive institutional participation that supported earlier stages of the bull cycle.

Attention has also turned to on-chain capital flows. The analysts pointed to the Realised Cap 30-Day Net Position Change metric, which tracks monthly changes in capital entering the Bitcoin network. Following Bitcoin’s rally toward $82,000 earlier this month, the metric climbed to roughly $2.8 billion per month, a level they said helped support recent bullish momentum.

Compared with previous rally phases, however, the pace of inflows remains subdued. The report noted that stronger breakout periods during the 2023 to 2025 cycle were accompanied by inflows accelerating toward the $10 billion monthly range, far above current levels. According to the analysts, the weaker inflow profile suggests Bitcoin may struggle to withstand prolonged macroeconomic pressure if interest rates remain elevated.

At the same time, the analysts warned that inflation concerns are complicating the Federal Reserve’s path forward.

“The new Fed chair inherits a central bank that has missed its inflation target for five consecutive years, an inflation expectations curve that is no longer anchored at 2 percent, and a market that continues to interpret his prior commentary as dovish despite a data environment that no longer supports that reading,” the report stated.

They added that political pressure for rate cuts is building even as inflation data continues challenging the case for easier monetary policy. According to the report, market expectations for the second half of 2026 are increasingly moving away from hopes of multiple rate cuts and toward a scenario where the Federal Reserve keeps policy restrictive in an effort to restore inflation credibility.