Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP Rise on US-Iran Deal Hope – BitRss

Bitcoin price is grinding higher on Thursday, hovering near the $78,000 mark as a cautious mood of diplomatic optimism spreads through global markets. Ethereum and XRP are tagging along with modest gains, though neither has cleared the technical overhead that’s been capping them for weeks. The catalyst isn’t on-chain. It’s geopolitical.

US-Iran Diplomacy Drives Market Mood

US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that nuclear talks with Iran had entered their final stage, telling reporters the deal just needed a few more days to get the right answers. Iranian state media confirmed the same day that Tehran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs was reviewing a US proposal transmitted through Pakistan, which has been serving as the back-channel intermediary in the negotiations.

Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian signaled openness to a diplomatic resolution. That was enough for markets. Oil prices, which had spiked above $104 per barrel on Monday, retreated to $97 for West Texas Intermediate by Thursday, reflecting the expectation that a deal could stabilize energy supply disruptions across the region.

That said, the situation isn’t clean. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards issued a pointed warning that any repeated aggression against Iran would trigger a regional war extending beyond the current conflict zone. Trump, for his part, kept the pressure on by insisting the situation could spiral fast if Tehran fails to reach an agreement. Markets are pricing in the optimistic scenario for now. But the risk premium hasn’t gone away.

If aggression against Iran is repeated, the promised regional war will extend beyond the region this time.

— Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, statement on Thursday

What Does This Mean for Crypto Sentiment?

The Bitcoin price rally to $78,000 didn’t happen in a vacuum. The broader market sentiment gauge, the Fear and Greed Index, ticked up to 29 on Thursday from 27 the prior day. Still deep in fear territory, but the direction matters. When this index starts moving off the floor, it typically precedes a rotation back into risk assets.

The reading doesn’t signal a bull run. It signals that sellers are getting tired and buyers are starting to test the water. For crypto, which tends to front-run macro sentiment shifts, even a marginal improvement in geopolitical visibility can put a floor under prices.

Bitcoin Technical Outlook: Holding the EMA Cluster

Bitcoin is trading near $78,000 on Thursday, finding dip buyers consistently around the 50-day EMA at $76,820 and the 100-day EMA at $76,904. Those two moving averages have essentially merged into a support band just under $77,000, and as long as BTC ($77,142.00 · Live) closes above that cluster, the near-term structure remains constructive.

The ceiling is harder to ignore. The 200-day EMA at $81,671 is the next real test for bulls. Bitcoin’s RSI reads around 49 on the daily chart, which is about as neutral as it gets. The MACD histogram is still negative, meaning any recovery attempts will likely be slow unless buyers can push price through the 200-day EMA and hold it.

On the downside, a daily close below the 50-day and 100-day EMA cluster would open the door to a deeper correction toward the rising trendline base around $69,992. That’s the floor bulls cannot afford to lose. Above, a clean break past $81,670 would shift the structure from recovery to something more sustained.

Ethereum Below All Three EMAs: Still Under Pressure

The Ethereum price sits at $2,140, and the technical picture is more stressed than Bitcoin’s. ETH ($2,125.34 · Live) is trading below its 50-day EMA near $2,244, its 100-day EMA around $2,314, and its 200-day EMA close to $2,535. All three are stacked overhead like a ceiling with multiple floors.

The RSI on Ethereum’s daily chart is just below the neutral 50 line and the MACD histogram is entrenched in negative territory. Together those signals suggest that any bounce attempts are likely to be sold into near the first EMA overhead. The pattern is clear: sellers are not done yet.

The key support holding Ethereum up is the $2,059 to $2,060 zone, defined by a prior upward trendline. Losing that level on a daily close would leave ETH exposed to a more meaningful slide toward lower swing lows on the daily chart. Bulls need a close above the 50-day EMA at $2,244 just to start changing the tone.

XRP Flips Its Trendline to Resistance

The XRP price at $1.38 is navigating a corrective phase that started when price broke below its rising support trendline. That same trendline is now acting as resistance around $1.40, sitting just below the 50-day EMA at approximately $1.41. XRP is trading under all three major moving averages, which cluster from $1.41 up to $1.70.

The RSI on XRP’s daily chart sits near 45 and the MACD is in negative territory. That combination points to soft downside momentum rather than an oversold bounce setup. The market isn’t panicking out of XRP, but it’s not buying it aggressively either.

For XRP to reverse course, a daily close above the former trendline break zone at $1.40 and the 50-day EMA would be the minimum requirement. From there, bulls would need to clear the 100-day EMA near $1.48 and eventually the 200-day EMA around $1.70 to reclaim meaningful upside. On the downside, support sits at $1.35 and $1.30 if selling pressure accelerates.

The Bigger Picture: Fear Is Fading, Slowly

Crypto doesn’t move on technicals alone, and Thursday’s session is a reminder of that. The entire market got a lift from a diplomatic headline. That’s how fragile the current setup is. Sentiment was sitting at Fear Index 27 on Wednesday, which means buyers were hesitant to step in on fundamentals alone.

The macro backdrop is doing most of the heavy lifting right now. If the US-Iran negotiations produce a credible framework in the next few days, oil prices could fall further, inflation expectations could ease, and risk assets including crypto would likely see renewed buying interest. If talks collapse, expect the fear number to reverse fast.

Bitcoin holding $78,000 through this geopolitical noise is arguably more important than the level itself. It says dip buyers are present and the market hasn’t given up on the longer-term thesis.