Bitcoin slipped below $80,000 on Thursday as US inflation data landed far hotter than expected, briefly shaking risk sentiment across markets. The move came after September Producer Price Index (PPI) figures overshot forecasts, adding to a volatile backdrop that has already been shaped by a stronger-than-expected US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release.
Despite the intraday dip—according to TradingView data, BTC/USD fell as much as 1.8% and tagged lows not seen since Sept. 18—price later recovered to around $81,000. The key question for traders now is whether the pullback can be contained near widely watched trend levels around the mid-to-high $70,000s.
Key takeaways
- September PPI rose 6.3% year over year versus 5.3% expected, the largest monthly increase since March 2022, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- Core PPI climbed to 5% year over year against expectations of 4.4%, reinforcing the inflation surprise that pressured crypto and broader risk assets.
- Bitcoin briefly traded below $80,000 after the data release, then rebounded toward the low $81,000s.
- Technical levels in focus include the 21-week and 50-week exponential moving averages (EMAs) around $76,144 and $78,459.
- Analysts highlighted that BTC may still need a “volatile retest” below trend lines to form a pullback bottom before any stronger uptrend confirmation.
Inflation surprise hits risk appetite, then fades
US September PPI data provided the immediate catalyst. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the increase is the largest advance since a 1.7% rise in March 2022, noting that the unadjusted index for final demand climbed 6.3% over the 12 months ended in September—its biggest 12-month gain since December 2022. The official release is available via the BLS.
In addition to the headline number, core PPI—reported at 5% year over year—also came in above expectations of 4.4%, with both figures contributing to the risk-off mood that followed the release. Earlier, the market had already digested a CPI report that also exceeded estimates, according to earlier coverage from Cointelegraph.
Crypto was not moving in isolation. The same Thursday session featured broader pressure in equities, including a sharp drop in South Korea’s KOSPI Composite Index, which fell 7.5%—a reminder that correlations can reassert themselves when macro data surprises in either direction.
Bonds don’t surge—yields “decoupled” from data
A crucial nuance in Thursday’s reaction is what happened to interest-rate expectations. Economist Mohamed El-Erian characterized PPI as “even more striking” than the CPI result, but he and others pointed out that US bond yields were not rising as the inflation numbers printed.
According to the article, the US 10-year yield was down by nearly 3% at the time of writing and was at its lowest levels since Sept. 23. That divergence—hotter inflation prints without a corresponding jump in yields—suggests markets may be weighing factors beyond near-term data.
Robin Brooks, formerly Goldman Sachs’ chief FX strategist, echoed this interpretation in a Substack post referenced in the coverage. He argued that yields have “decoupled” from macro data as attention shifts toward the federal budget deficit rather than day-to-day inflation surprises. In his blog analysis, Brooks reportedly showed that the 30-day correlation between upside data surprises and daily moves in the 10-year yield fell from near 0.6 earlier in 2026 to just below zero by the end of August.
For Bitcoin investors, this matters because the market’s sensitivity to inflation can be expressed either through yields (a more direct channel to risk assets) or through other expectations. When yields fail to confirm the inflation shock, volatility can remain high without necessarily turning into a sustained deleveraging cycle.
Bitcoin technicals: watch the 21-week and 50-week EMAs
Even with the macro-driven wobble, the focus quickly shifted back to chart structure. Trading analysis highlighted two key moving-average levels: the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA) at approximately $76,144 and the 50-week EMA near $78,459.
Rekt Capital, a trader and analyst cited in the report, suggested that BTC/USD could still retest these levels while preserving the larger bullish trend. In an X post referenced by the article, he noted that early-stage bull markets have historically involved “volatile retests” where price can deviate below important trend lines to find a pullback bottom.
However, his observation included a condition: such deviations have typically occurred after bullish crossovers of the two EMAs, while Bitcoin, at the time of the commentary, was still “pre-crossover.” The implication is that the market may be in a transitional phase—capable of further dips—before a clearer technical confirmation emerges.
Bitcoin also remains below a highlighted support zone between $82,500 and $82,800, described as an area of interest in recent weeks. A weaker weekly hold can keep the door open for consolidation rather than a direct continuation higher.
Another analyst referenced in the coverage, Aksel Kibar, pointed to the importance of weekly closes, saying that the latest weekly close around $83,700 lacked strength as a breakout. Kibar also described how a weekly close within a range could allow Bitcoin to resume a broader consolidation pattern between roughly $60,000 and $82,800, with specific framework levels acting as negation points for that setup.
What to monitor next: whether “retest” becomes a bottom
With PPI having delivered a clear inflation upside surprise—but yields not rising in tandem—investors should watch whether BTC can stabilize around the $76,000–$78,000 EMA region or whether the market extends the drop into a deeper liquidation-driven move. The next clues are likely to come from how price behaves around those moving averages and whether weekly closes regain strength above the $82,500–$82,800 area highlighted by analysts.
Be the first to comment