What to know:
- Bitcoin supply in loss has moved above supply in profit for the first time in this cycle.
- Historical on-chain data shows similar conditions appeared near previous market bottoms.
- Technical charts suggest long-term support remains the key level for the next market direction.
Bitcoin has entered an unusual stage of its market cycle after on-chain data showed that more coins are now being held at a loss than at a profit. Analyst Ali Charts highlighted that around 10.45 million BTC are currently underwater, while about 9.60 million BTC remain in profit.
This marks the first instance in the ongoing cycle that supply in loss has surpassed supply in profit, which is something that usually occurs at major lows in bear markets.
The numbers point to the idea that the latest decline in prices has forced new entrants to realize losses. On the other hand, history from prior market cycles shows that similar occurrences have occurred prior to the accumulation of Bitcoin by long-term holders.
As Ali Charts noted, such crossover events have occurred just a few times throughout the 15 years of Bitcoin’s existence. Signals have been observed in 2011, 2014, 2018, and in March 2020, when there was a market crash.
Source: X
In all these cases, a market rebound occurred, but the time frame varied and could be up to a year. The recent crossover signal emerged in June 2026 and persists, putting Bitcoin in the high-conviction accumulation zone, according to Ali Charts.
Also Read: RENDER Price Enters Key Accumulation Zone: Is a Massive Rally to $50 Coming?
On-Chain Data Reflects Changing Market Sentiment
The Glassnode data makes use of the Bitcoin market price against the cost of circulation coins. Coins purchased below the market price are considered a supply at a profit, whereas those acquired above the market price are a supply at a loss.
All these metrics have been correlated with the cycles of the market for Bitcoin. The bullish market increases the supply that is in profit while decreasing the supply in losses, and a bearish market does the opposite.
Although there has been a correction in the price of Bitcoin, much of its supply is still in profit.
Bitcoin Technical Structure Keeps Long-Term Trend Alive
As per Crypto Patel, there is a chart that indicates that the trend of bitcoin is moving inside a parallel channel for more than a month since 2015.
The cryptocurrency reached its all-time high of $112,000 in 2025, before correcting to $59,300 while holding above the key support region.
Source: X
On the chart, the $36,000 to $44,000 region is indicated as a major accumulation zone, using the Fibonacci retracement levels of 0.5 and 0.618.
Maintaining control of this region will preserve the integrity of the overall uptrend and even facilitate another rally. On the other hand, a breach below this level will raise the probability of a steeper fall to lower levels of Fibonacci before another attempt at a move higher.
This article contains market analysis and price predictions. These are not guarantees. Crypto markets are volatile. Always DYOR. Not financial advice.
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