Bitcoin Loss Supply Stays Above Profit As 10.8M BTC Remain Underwater

Bitcoin’s onchain loss pressure has reached one of its deepest readings of the cycle, with the supply in Loss metric rising to a record 10.83 million BTC after price fell below $59,100.

The move means more Bitcoin last moved at a higher price than the current market level. Glassnode defines supply in loss as coins whose last transfer price was above the current price, while supply in Profit tracks coins last moved below the current price.

The crossover between loss and profit supply first appeared earlier this month as Bitcoin fell toward the low-$60,000 area. At that point, more than 10 million BTC had moved into unrealized loss, leaving profit supply lower for the first time in this cycle. The latest selloff pushed that stress further, with loss-bearing supply reaching a new high as Bitcoin traded near $58,000.

The metric does not mean holders have sold or realized losses. It measures unrealized pressure across coins still sitting onchain. Those coins only become realized losses if they move or sell below their acquisition price.

Underwater Supply Signals Market Stress

A large supply-in-loss reading shows how much of the network is trapped below breakeven. That can create two different market effects. Some holders capitulate, adding spot supply when price rebounds or support breaks. Others refuse to sell, reducing liquid supply and making the next move more dependent on new demand.

The current setup is not isolated. Bitcoin has already been hit by heavy ETF redemptions, with U.S. spot funds recording their worst weekly outflow after about $1.79 billion left the products between June 22 and June 26. That flow pressure arrived as onchain loss readings were already moving into historically stressed territory.

Long-term holder behavior gives the market a mixed signal. A high loss reading often appears near major stress points, but it can last for weeks if demand remains weak. Holders with stronger conviction can absorb drawdowns, while newer buyers and leveraged traders usually decide whether the pressure turns into capitulation.

Bitcoin’s recent 200-week SMA setup has also put long-term support back in focus. The market is now testing whether that longer-cycle zone can attract enough demand to offset ETF outflows, underwater supply and weak momentum.

BTC Holds Near $58K After Record Loss Reading

The price zone matters because every move lower shifts more supply into unrealized loss. A recovery above recent cost-basis clusters would move some coins back into profit, reducing pressure from holders waiting to exit at breakeven. A sustained break lower would keep expanding the loss side of the ledger.

That makes the latest crossover a stress signal rather than a standalone bottom signal. Previous cycles have seen deep loss-supply readings near major lows, but the metric still needs confirmation from price, volume, ETF flows, derivatives positioning and holder spending behavior.

The strongest bullish version would involve Bitcoin holding the high-$50,000 range, ETF outflows slowing and realized losses cooling as older holders avoid selling into weakness. The bearish version would involve another break below the recent low, forcing more recent buyers underwater and increasing the chance of capitulation.