Bitcoin (BTC) has retreated to around $79,200 after briefly climbing above the $80,000 mark on Sunday night for the first time since January. Despite the harsh pullback, the premier crypto remains modestly higher, up about 0.4% over the past 24 hours.
Still, bullish sentiment persists. According to Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards, BTC could be on track for a move toward $96,000 by June, driven by strong institutional demand. Edwards notes that institutions are currently absorbing more than five times the daily supply of newly mined Bitcoin, highlighting a significant imbalance between demand and issuance.
BTC Tends to Rally 24% After Institutional Demand Tightens Supply
In a May 4 post on X, Capriole Investments’ Charles Edwards said institutional demand for Bitcoin has spiked dramatically, with investors “slurping up 500%+ of Bitcoin’s daily mined supply.”
Edwards highlighted in a chart that since Bitcoin’s fourth quadrennial halving in April 2024, miners have been producing roughly 450 BTC per day, keeping supply growth relatively stable. As a result, the network’s rate of change (ROC) — represented by the red line— has remained subdued at around 0.0022% as of Monday.
By contrast, the rate of change in institutional demand (blue line) was recorded at around 0.0139%, suggesting that buying pressure is accelerating at a pace more than five times faster than the expansion of new Bitcoin supply.
 
Renewed inflows into U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), along with consistent accumulation by Michael Saylor’s Strategy, have played a key role in bolstering demand. In April alone, these buyers collectively added around 70,000 BTC—significantly outpacing the roughly 13,500 BTC mined over the same period.
Edwards further pointed out that periods where institutional demand exceeds 500% of Bitcoin’s daily issuance have historically been followed by strong upside performance. In past instances, BTC has averaged gains of roughly 24% in the subsequent month, a trend that, if repeated, would imply a potential rally toward the $96,000 threshold by June.
“Every time it’s been this high before, price has shot up over the next week. The average return in prior cases is +24% over the next 1 month from here, that would take is to around $96K,” Edwards postulated.
BTC Teases Major Breakout as Institutional Buying Power Fuels Support
More on-chain metrics are increasingly pointing to the possibility of a larger Bitcoin price move ahead.
According to a chart shared by on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant on Monday, Bitcoin has bounced off a key support zone, with the move largely driven by sustained institutional inflows—an early signal that a potential breakout may be underway.
The chart shows BTC holding firm around the average cost basis of investors who entered the market during the initial launch period of Bitcoin ETFs, a level now acting as an important support area amid ongoing market consolidation.
Meanwhile, crypto analyst Matthew Hyland described Bitcoin’s latest push above $80,000 as a “disbelief rally,” suggesting the move is unfolding against lingering market skepticism.
“The many calling for $60K and below will be the ones flipping bullish late above $90K,” he added.
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