Bitcoin has fallen 3.6% over the past 24 hours to around $81,500 as stronger-than-expected U.S. producer inflation has renewed concerns about another Federal Reserve interest rate increase.
Summary
- U.S. producer prices rose 1.3% in September, the largest monthly increase since March 2022.
- Annual wholesale inflation reached 6.3%, following Wednesday’s 3.7% consumer inflation reading.
- Bitcoin traded near $81,500 after recording a 24-hour low of $80,443.
- CME FedWatch pricing cited in the initial report put October rate hike odds at 34%.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Oct. 15 that September’s producer price index rose 1.3% from August, accelerating from the previous month’s revised 0.5% increase.
On an annual basis, the agency recorded a 6.3% rise in wholesale prices, the fastest increase since December 2022. The release followed Wednesday’s consumer inflation report, giving investors a second set of stronger price readings before the Fed’s October policy meeting.
Bitcoin retreats after failing to clear $84,000
According to the initial market report, Bitcoin traded around $81,500 following the PPI release, with its daily decline exceeding 3.6%. The report also placed Bitcoin below its 50-day moving average and recorded a 24-hour low of $80,443.
Before the inflation releases, crypto.news reported that Bitcoin had approached $83,900 during Asian trading on Oct. 14 before retreating toward $83,500, leaving a recovery above $84,000 incomplete.
In that coverage, analyst Ali Martinez identified $84,000 as a potential breakout level on the 4-hour chart. Martinez’s proposed route toward $93,000 depended on a confirmed close above resistance and continued upward price movement; it was a conditional target rather than a forecast that Bitcoin would reach that price.
The same report cited New York Fed President John Williams’ Oct. 13 remarks that another increase could be appropriate before the end of 2026, while economic conditions did not indicate a need for additional increases in 2027.
Energy prices drive September’s wholesale inflation increase
Within the September release, BLS attributed more than 80% of the increase in final-demand goods prices to energy, where prices jumped 10.8%. The agency recorded a 20.3% increase in gasoline prices, alongside increases in diesel, jet fuel, residential electricity and crude petroleum.
For final-demand goods overall, BLS reported a 2.6% monthly increase, the largest since the series began in December 2009. Food prices rose 1.2%, while goods excluding food and energy increased 0.3%, according to the release.
Across services, the agency recorded a 0.8% increase. BLS attributed nearly half of that advance to a 1.4% rise in trade-service margins, with transportation and warehousing services also becoming more expensive.
Using its measure excluding food, energy and trade services, BLS reported a 0.5% monthly increase and a 5% annual rise.
For comparison, July 15 coverage of Bitcoin’s rally after softer PPI described the opposite market reaction: Bitcoin reclaimed $65,000 after June producer inflation came in below expectations.
According to that report’s CME FedWatch snapshot, the probability of a July rate increase fell to 10.2%, down from roughly 16% after the preceding CPI release and above 30% a week earlier. The July report also recorded a 0.3% monthly decline in headline producer prices, while core PPI rose 0.2%, below the expected 0.3%.
October rate expectations remain divided after CPI and PPI
Following Wednesday’s CPI release, Reuters reported that annual consumer inflation reached 3.7%, while core inflation came in at 2.6%, exceeding the 2.5% forecast in its economist poll.
In the same report, PPHC chief economist Martin Beck said persistent inflation remained a concern, although weaker employment data and fragile consumer sentiment could allow the Fed to hold rates in October.
By Thursday, the initial report’s CME FedWatch snapshot assigned a 34% probability to a quarter-point October increase and a 66% probability to unchanged rates. Reuters separately reported roughly 30% odds, with the next policy meeting scheduled for Oct. 27–28.
Despite the inflation readings, Reuters recorded falling Treasury yields and a weaker dollar on Thursday. Its report also placed the Fed’s current benchmark range at 3.75%–4%, following September’s quarter-point increase.
U.S. Bitcoin ETF flows had slowed before the inflation releases
For U.S.-listed investment products, an Oct. 3 report documented slower Bitcoin ETF inflows during Sep. 28–Oct. 2, citing Farside Investors’ provisional figures.
According to the report, the funds attracted a provisional $82.9 million over that period, compared with $2.39 billion in the preceding week. BlackRock’s Friday entry was still pending when the figures were checked, so the reported weekly total was incomplete.
Across the individual sessions, Farside’s figures showed $31 million arriving on Monday and $66.2 million on Tuesday, followed by $148.7 million in Wednesday withdrawals. Thursday brought $102.7 million in inflows, while Friday’s reported intake stood at $31.7 million before the outstanding entry.
At the fund level, the report recorded $167.9 million in weekly withdrawals from Fidelity’s FBTC, $38.6 million from Bitwise’s BITB and $54.6 million from Grayscale’s GBTC. BlackRock’s IBIT attracted $292 million across Monday through Thursday, according to the same historical snapshot.
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