Bitcoin price has failed to hold above $64,000 despite July US inflation matching market forecasts. Before the CPI release, BTC briefly moved above $64,400, but it dropped toward $63,800 after a report that the US-Iran war could proceed longer after denial of a memorandum of understanding.
According to reports, US consumer prices rose 3.4% year over year in July, down from 3.5% in June and matching expectations. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, came in at 2.5%, while monthly headline inflation rose 0.1% following a 0.4% decline in June.
Bitcoin Holds $64K as CPI Meets Forecasts
Bitcoin avoided a larger move after the inflation report delivered few surprises for traders. The cryptocurrency initially faced selling pressure after the release but remained close to the $64,000 level, limiting the immediate downside following the macro event.
Expectations for a September rate increase fell to about 34% after the CPI figures, roughly half the level recorded in late July. US stock futures also moved higher as softer annual inflation reduced expectations that the Federal Reserve would need to tighten monetary policy further at its September meeting.
The inflation report arrived as energy prices remained elevated compared with levels before the US-Iran conflict. Gasoline prices declined nearly 3% during July but remained about 15% higher than a year earlier, while Brent crude continued to react to uncertainty surrounding negotiations involving Washington and Tehran.
Iran has denied that active discussions are underway to extend the current US-Iran memorandum of understanding. Iranian officials also dispute the description of the arrangement as a formal ceasefire, while negotiations remain focused on whether Washington will return to the agreement before its 60-day window expires on August 17.
Bitcoin NUPL Signals Rising Long-Term Holder Stress
Amid the declining BTC prices, Bitcoin’s adjusted Net Unrealized Profit and Loss indicator has moved deeper into negative territory among long-term holders. The reading suggests investors who normally hold BTC through periods of volatility are now carrying larger unrealized losses than the broader market.
Long-term holder-adjusted NUPL has fallen below the market average as Bitcoin trades roughly 50% below its cycle high. Similar conditions appeared during earlier market bottoms, when long-term investors faced sustained losses before Bitcoin eventually recovered.
Source: CryptoQuant
However, the current reading has not fallen as deeply as levels recorded during previous major bear-market lows. Earlier cycle bottoms produced longer periods of severe long-term holder losses, leaving doubts over whether the current structure represents a final low.
The indicator therefore supports a possible “bottoming process” rather than confirmation that Bitcoin has completed its decline. A deeper move into negative NUPL territory combined with renewed selling could signal another capitulation phase, while a recovery toward zero could suggest holder stress has started easing.
Second Early Bull Signal Adds to Bitcoin Bottom Case
A separate Bitcoin indicator has produced what analysts describe as a “second early bull signal,” another pattern previously associated with the later stages of market declines. Historical readings show Bitcoin often continued falling after the first signal before the second reading appeared closer to a market bottom.
Source: Cryptoquant
The latest second signal has emerged while Bitcoin remains under pressure but without the extended overheated conditions seen during some earlier bull cycles. The extreme bearish phase during the latest decline has also remained relatively brief compared with several previous downturns.
Consequently, analysts who are tracking the indicator say Bitcoin is “highly likely” to be forming a bottom, although the signal does not confirm that selling has ended.
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