Bitcoin Price Holds Above $66,000 As Historic Bottom Signal Returns

Blockonomics
Changelly


What to know:

  • Bitcoin price holds above $66,000 as a historic macro bottom signal reappears on the monthly chart.
  • Analyst says the RSI, CMO, and 50-month moving average combination has marked every major Bitcoin cycle bottom.
  • Short-term momentum strengthens with a bullish MACD crossover and Bitcoin trading above the middle Bollinger Band.

Bitcoin price looks ready to rally as an old pattern of bottom formation comes back into play. Despite on-chain data suggesting that Bitcoin may head even lower, the latest technical signals point to an accumulation area for the asset in the long term.

At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $66,221, up 2.76% over the last 24 hours. BTC recorded $46.55 billion in daily trading volume, while its market capitalization reached $1.33 trillion, showing renewed buying interest after the recent correction.

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Bitcoin Price Repeats Bullish Bottom Pattern

On July 21, a popular crypto analyst, Ali Martinez, highlighted yet another instance of a macro bottoming signal in Bitcoin’s case. According to him, on-chain statistics such as MVRV and CVDD continue to point to a possibility of BTC revisiting the $40,000-$50,000 range.

However, he argued that Bitcoin’s long-term technical chart tells a different story.

According to Martinez, in all the big Bitcoin bottoms experienced, there have always been three indicators that occur concurrently: RSI at around 43.65 for monthly data, CMO around -71, and Bitcoin trying out its 50-month moving average. In all the cases he has come across, these indicators always show the beginning of a recovery period.

He mentioned that this structure occurred even before the onset of some of the best long-term rallies of Bitcoin price.

The 2015 instance occurred after Bitcoin was trading at approximately $235, ahead of its rally of around 8,300%. In 2019, Bitcoin rallied about 1,911% after forming this structure at approximately $3,333. This formation also occurred in December 2022 at approximately $16,270, preceding the rally of around 675% by Bitcoin.

The technical convergence of Martinez was reiterated last month through the correction to $58,000 due to the monthly RSI being under 43.65, the CMO dropping to about -71, and Bitcoin trading near its 50-month moving average.

While he admitted that on-chain information leaves room for Bitcoin price to continue its movement towards the CVDD support zone of $40,000-$50,000, Martinez believes that this technical structure has been one of the best accumulation zones for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Price Turns Bullish as Momentum Grows

Bitcoin’s most recent rally has also improved the short-term technical profile.

It is currently trading above the middle Bollinger Band around $63,770, while also getting close to the upper Bollinger Band at $65,969. Staying above the middle Bollinger Band indicates that buyers are back in control post the recent drop.

The value of MACD stands at 471.26, which is higher than that of the signal line (373.19), maintaining the positive crossover trend. The MACD histogram reading stands at 98.07, suggesting sustained positive momentum. If it stays positive, then Bitcoin price might continue to recover; however, investors must look for weakening momentum.

Should Bitcoin rise above the top Bollinger Band, provided that the demand is still present, then the Bitcoin price might keep rising. Otherwise, if the buying pace drops off at the existing level, it will turn into the resistance area.

What Investors Should Watch Next

The coming weeks may decide whether or not Bitcoin price can prove its recovery. Breaking out from critical support areas and overcoming resistance areas is what would validate the bull thesis.

In parallel, however, it will be interesting to see whether the on-chain data starts corroborating the improved technical signals. Both moving in the same direction would boost expectations for a sustainable recovery. Up until that moment, Bitcoin price continues to operate at a pivotal point, where the previous history and the current market environment both have something to offer.

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