Bitcoin price is losing momentum near the end of September after retreating from a recent high around $87,400. BTC traded near $84,000 on September 29, leaving traders focused on whether the pullback is temporary or the start of a deeper Q4 correction.
Bitcoin climbed sharply during September before momentum faded near the $87,000 area. Market data shows BTC reached about $87,270 on September 23 before sliding back toward $83,000 to $84,000 by September 29.
What Is Driving the Bitcoin Price Pullback?
The shift has put the $83,000-$85,000 price zone back in the limelight. The September 23 report from Glassnode found a cluster of long-term holders’ supply in the range of $84,000-$85,000, while the mean MVRV price showed that the next on-chain resistance level could be formed at $96,700.
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The general market is also contributing to the pressure. Bitcoin was trading towards posting five consecutive losses on September 29 as higher yields of US Treasuries made interest-bearing assets more attractive.
Why Do Midterm-Year Q4 Returns Matter?
In 2026, the US midterms will be held during November, which means another historical marker for the trader going into the fourth quarter. According to USAGov, congressional elections occur once every two years, and the next midterms will be held in November 2026.
CoinGlass data indicate that in the previous three years of US midterms, the Bitcoin performance was negative in the fourth quarter of the year. In 2014, Bitcoin lost 16.70%; in 2018, 42.16%; and in 2022, 14.75%.
These data provide a certain pattern but cannot prove the impact of elections on Bitcoin performance. There were different cryptocurrency cycles, liquidity conditions, and macroeconomic environments during those periods.
Analyst Ali Martinez has compared the performance of Bitcoin during the midterms in the US. As one can see from his chart, there were certain periods of Bitcoin underperformance and outperformance when considering the broader Bitcoin cycle.
Where Is Bitcoin’s Key Holder Cost Basis?
Bitcoin remains well above the short-term holder realized price, an on-chain metric that tracks the average cost basis of recently acquired BTC. Glassnode currently estimates this level at around $73,242.
Trading above the level of this cost basis implies that recent buyers are in collective profit. Falling towards this metric will put more selling pressure on the group of participants who joined the market during the current recovery period.
Bitcoin price remains well above the short-term holder realized price, leaving recent buyers in aggregate profit. However, a sustained move below this cost basis would signal growing pressure on short-term holders and a weaker market structure.
Who Sees Limited Signs of Market Overheating?
Daan Crypto Trades noted Bitcoin derivatives positioning as another key indicator. The analyst noted in his September 29 X post that the open interest denominated in coins had dropped to the lowest point in four to five months.
The decline indicates there has been no aggressive leverage buildup amid the ongoing uptrend. Daan also flagged $83,000 as a near-term level to watch out for and said that the market is showing little sign of overheating since the recovery.
Glassnode similarly noted that there is little excessive leverage in the broader crypto market space. The latest report from Glassnode also pointed to growing ETF interest, minimal profit-taking, and over twice the August trough spot volume.
When Could Bitcoin Price Confirm Its Next Move?
BTC will be nearing its Q4 price range amid strong support just below and overhead resistance above. The ability to hold the low-$83,000 region should help keep Bitcoin around the $84,000 to $85,000 supply range. A push higher above the September highs would bring more resistance points into play.
Any lower move could put pressure on the $73,242 short-term holding cost basis. This level is far below the spot price and is more of an indication of stress on recent buyers if selling increases.
The prior midterm-year loss performance adds historical perspective rather than a prediction for 2026. At this time, the immediate next move for Bitcoin will depend on the ability to hold current support amid sustained spot demand and leveraged buying.
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This article contains market analysis and price predictions. These are not guarantees. Crypto markets are volatile. Always DYOR. Not financial advice.
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