What to know:
- Bitcoin has reclaimed the 1,130-day SMA, a level historically linked to major market-cycle bottoms.
- BTC remained below the indicator for nearly 80 days before breaking back above it on August 20.
- Bitcoin is trading above the upper Bollinger Band, while its RSI at 83.14 signals strong but potentially overheated momentum.
Bitcoin price has recovered and gained momentum after regaining a significant technical level that was previously witnessed at the end of major bear markets.
At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $79,172, with a 24-hour trading volume of $95.18 billion and a market capitalization of $1.60 trillion. The cryptocurrency has gained 2.63% over the last 24 hours.
Bitcoin Price Flashes Bullish Signal Near Cycle Bottom
As reported on August 24 by the crypto analyst Ali Martinez, yet another bullish sign for Bitcoin has come up. The Bitcoin price is currently being supported by the 1,130-day simple moving average (SMA), which has played a critical role near bottoms in the past market cycles.
In fact, as per Martinez, the bull market for BTC has just begun following the retest of this moving average during each of the previous four market cycles. Although history may not necessarily repeat itself, there is now even more reason to believe that the Bitcoin correction cycle may be drawing to a close.
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Bitcoin Reclaims a Long-Term Market-Cycle Level
The latest move in Bitcoin price is especially significant considering that it occurs after a very long stretch below the 1,130-day SMA.
The cryptocurrency broke below the moving average on June 1, 2026, and traded below the moving average for almost 80 days. BTC was heavily sold during this time and went into extreme oversold conditions before rebounding.
The situation changed on August 20, when Bitcoin broke above $74,000 and reclaimed the 1,130-day SMA. Holding above the indicator could now turn the previous resistance into a longer-term support zone.
This is why the latest breakout matters beyond Bitcoin’s short-term price increase. If the historical pattern continues, the June decline could have marked the cycle low rather than the beginning of another extended downturn.
Nevertheless, it should not be taken as an indicator that the bull run is already on. There have been instances where Bitcoin failed in its breakout amid a major market correction, thus requiring further price strength to support the prevailing trend.
Bitcoin Pushes Above the Upper Bollinger Band
The technical outlook for Bitcoin price in the shorter term is also reflecting impressive upside strength.
The upper Bollinger Band is placed at $79,224.74, the middle one is at $67,552.18, and the lower one at $55,879.62. Considering that Bitcoin’s price is trading near $79,000, it has crossed above the upper band.
It is worth noting that crossing the upper Bollinger Band usually denotes unusual buying pressure on an asset. This might happen at the beginning of strong rallies but also indicates a too-fast rally for which consolidation might be needed.
Another useful signal is provided by the Relative Strength Index (RSI). The RSI indicator for Bitcoin stands at 83.14, which is quite high compared to the traditional overbought level of 70. The moving average is about 61.35.
Just because RSI is overbought doesn’t imply that Bitcoin will drop. In an environment of strong bullish momentum, an instrument may be overbought for quite some time. However, the level itself increases the chances of a price correction in case of weaker buying interest.
What Happens Next for BTC?
Immediate attention must be paid to whether Bitcoin will be able to stay above its reclaimed 1,130-day simple moving average (SMA) line and continue to sit above the $79,000 level.
Any significant price action towards and beyond the $82,000 level will provide more evidence to support the thesis that the recent lows were the cycle low. Failure to keep its latest break higher could undermine the bullish setup.
In the meantime, however, the main idea is that Bitcoin has shifted from defending the long-term support to being tested against major resistances. Technical advantage for buyers comes from the reclaiming of the 1,130-day SMA, while increasing ETF flows and a move above other important indicators bring additional bullish elements into the picture.
However, any confirmation will need follow-through. A clear breakout above the $82,000 area should make the case that the 2026 bear-market low is being left behind much more convincing.
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This article contains market analysis and price predictions. These are not guarantees. Crypto markets are volatile. Always DYOR. Not financial advice.
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