TL;DR
- Bitcoin’s quantum discount hit a record 30% as Core developers resist freezing dormant addresses and Galaxy Digital launches a $5 million Quantum Readiness program
- XRP’s 30-day MVRV turned positive, but the token still faces resistance at $1.146 and a bigger trend barrier at $1.416
- A new whale moved $2.76 million in SHIB off Coinbase to a fresh wallet, the second major withdrawal this week as the token consolidates near multi-month lows
- Bitcoin ETFs posted $727 million in net inflows over five days even as Bitcoin Knots developers and Michael Saylor clash over the BIP-110 proposal
- Thursday’s US jobless claims data is the next volatility catalyst ahead of the Federal Reserve’s meeting later this month
30% for fear: Why Bitcoin is trading at a quantum discount
Bitcoin’s quantum discount has reached 30% for the first time in history, according to fresh data from the Capriole Investments model. With the current market price at $65,472, investors are pricing in an unprecedented risk discount: fundamentally, the asset is valued at almost twice as much, but uncertainty surrounding Q-Day continues to drag the price lower.
The discount continues to deepen, as it stood at 28% at the beginning of the summer.
Capriole founder Charles Edwards added fuelby publicly taking aim at Bitcoin Core developers and directly asking whether they planned to do anything about the issue.
The technical deadlock is that Google Quantum AI confirmed this spring that algorithms capable of breaking the secp256k1 curve, which underpins Bitcoin’s security, are accelerating. To implement post-quantum protection, Core developers would have to forcibly freeze old “dormant” addresses, including Satoshi Nakamoto’s one million coins — a step they are not prepared to take.
While Grayscale considers the panic premature, Citi analysts are warning about a “harvest now, decrypt later” strategy: hackers are already copying mempool traffic in order to crack it retroactively. Against the backdrop of Ethereum’s migration to new signature schemes, Core’s technological hesitation is costing the market exactly 30% in unrealized value.
While developers delay, businesses are taking the initiative. Galaxy Digital has launched a $5 million Quantum Readiness program to fund grants aimed at protecting the network from Shor’s algorithm. Market momentum is building: Coinbase advisers are demanding an immediate code migration, while Project Eleven analysts predict that machines capable of threatening modern cryptography could emerge as early as 2030–2033.
XRP exits the “fear zone”: Traders are profitable again, but the chart remains tense
Investors who accumulated XRP over the past month have finally moved out of the red. According to Santiment analysts, the 30-day MVRV indicator for XRP and other major altcoins, including ETH, ADA and LINK, has crossed above zero, meaning that short-term wallets are now showing a small profit.
The turning point came after Bitcoin’s comeback to $65,000. The market was supported by softer US inflation data and fresh inflows into crypto ETFs, which noticeably revived buyers, while the “Fear Buy Zone” of relatively safe bottom buying was left behind.
The rebound is real, but since traders are no longer sitting on losses, they now have a natural incentive to take profits. Any sign of the market cooling could trigger a rapid wave of selling.
On the daily chart, XRP is currently trading near $1.1331, up around 3.5% since the beginning of the week. The price found local support slightly above the psychological $1.00 level and is attempting to develop a full-fledged rebound.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index has settled in neutral territory at 55, confirming that panic selling has stopped and buyers have gained some room to maneuver.
However, it is still too early to celebrate a global reversal, as the asset has now run into resistance at the short-term moving average near $1.1459. The main challenge for bulls remains the heavy long-term trend level around $1.4159.
Only a decisive breakout above this level would prove that XRP has finally broken the downtrend and is ready for significant growth.
Why are new whales vacuuming up SHIB at the local bottom?
While retail traders are bored by the summer flat market, major players are quietly vacuuming up supply. According to Arkham Intelligence, Coinbase Prime has recorded a series of large Shiba Inu withdrawals to newly created wallets with no previous transaction history.
The main event was the transfer of 645.928 billion SHIB, worth around $2.76 million, to the address “0xd017dBe7C45”.
This is already the second major purchase in a week. Just yesterday, another unknown whale withdrew 162.43 billion SHIB, worth approximately $672,000, from the same platform.
Why are they doing this? Moving tokens to private wallets removes them from exchange order books and reduces the available supply.
The SHIB chart clearly shows that large capital is carefully buying the local bottom. After a prolonged decline from the May highs, the price found firm support in the $0.00000412–$0.00000423 range, where a bullish RSI signal formed.
The asset is currently trapped in a narrow corridor and trading at $0.00000428. However, the moving average at $0.00000450 is limiting the price from above, while the global downtrend, shown by the red line, remains much higher at around $0.00000594.
Major players are clearly using this prolonged consolidation and reset RSI to accumulate without drawing attention before a potential breakout from Shiba Inu’s multi-month decline.
Crypto market outlook: Bitcoin ETFs stage a $727 million comeback while Saylor fights for code
The crypto market appears to have found a local bottom. Spot Bitcoin ETFs snapped a steep outflow streak, pulling in around $727 million in net inflows over the past five days.
Institutional investors are adding fresh capital while a dispute over the BIP-110 upgrade splits Bitcoin’s developer community. Bitcoin itself is holding in the $65,700–$67,200 range after US funds absorbed $227 million on July 20 alone.
Key checkpoints:
- ETFs are back in the game: After a prolonged period of capital outflows, Bitcoin funds delivered a five-day inflow streak of $727 million, their best result in almost three months. Ether ETFs added another $38 million on the same day, pointing to fading seller pressure.
- Bitcoin is holding its ground: The leading cryptocurrency is locked in a narrow range between $65,700 and $67,200. A breakout above resistance would open the way toward local highs, while a drop below support would put the market under pressure.
- BIP-110 splits developers: Bitcoin Knots developers, whose software runs around 23% of nodes, want to limit OP_RETURN to 83 bytes to cut spam transactions, NFT inscriptions and shitcoins off the network. Michael Saylor has publicly opposed the upgrade, calling it censorship and “monetary purity imposed from above.” Opponents counter that market fees, not code restrictions, should regulate network use.
- Macroeconomic trigger: The main volatility catalyst this week arrives Thursday, July 23, when the US releases initial jobless claims data. The reading will shape rate expectations ahead of the Federal Reserve’s meeting later this month.
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