What to know:
- Bitcoin rose 24% in seven days, reaching $76,844 as short liquidations fueled demand.
- Standard Chartered keeps its $100K target as Kendrick sees a possible return to $126K.
- Recovering spot Bitcoin ETF inflows may add fresh demand beyond forced short covering.
Bitcoin climbed around 24% in one week to reach $76,845, prompting Geoffrey Kendrick from Standard Chartered Bank to cast doubts on the bank’s forecast for a price target of $100,000 for year-end.
Geoffrey Kendrick leads digital asset research at Standard Chartered. In a note published last Friday, he said liquidations drove most of the rally. He added that recovering inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs could provide another source of demand.
As of now, Bitcoin is about 23% below the official forecast. It also remained nearly 39% under the $126,000 record high.
What Is Driving Bitcoin’s Rally Above $70,000?
Short sellers must buy BTC to close their positions, adding demand to the market. Kendrick said this forced buying drove most of the latest rally.
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BTC broke higher after trading between $60,000 and $65,000 for an extended period. It then cleared $65,000, $67,000 and $70,000. These levels had blocked earlier recovery attempts.
Kendrick also pointed to relatively low market open interest. Fewer leveraged positions are active than during heavily crowded periods. This leaves room for investors to rebuild their exposure.
Bitcoin US spot ETFs’ flows had already started showing some improvement before the current breakout. These ETFs saw $221.7 million net inflows on July 2, ending a negative period lasting 10 days.
By July 21, ETFs had been gaining inflows in five consecutive trading days. At that time, BTC was trading at around $65,245, while $70,000 was still very significant resistance.
Why Is Standard Chartered Keeping Its $100K Target?
However, Standard Chartered has not officially changed its $100,000 year-end Bitcoin forecast. Kendrick said BTC may revisit $126,000 if the current rally gains stronger momentum. The bank still retains its existing target despite the analyst’s more optimistic outlook.
The analyst noted that the rally could intensify following Oct. 6. This date is not far from the anniversary of the top of the Bitcoin price in 2025. There was a decline in prices after reaching that top.
Standard Chartered lowered the price forecast on BTC from $150,000 to $100,000 on February 12. The reduction was attributed to outflows from ETFs, economic downturn, and reduced expectations of Fed interest rate cuts. Positioning changes were also a factor in this change.
At first, Kendrick thought BTC would move toward the price of $50,000 before going up. Instead, Bitcoin went lower, but it stopped at the level above $50,000.
The bank maintained its $100,000 year-end target when Bitcoin approached $61,000 in early June. It kept the forecast after BTC later dropped toward $59,000 and recovered to around $63,500. Kendrick linked the decline to forced liquidations, weak ETF demand and broader liquidity pressure.
At the time, he described the move toward $59,000 as the likely low of the cycle. The bank did not lower its outlook again, despite the sharp volatility and uncertain institutional demand. Standard Chartered reaffirmed the $100,000 forecast on July 10, when BTC traded above $64,000.
Bitcoin has since gained more than $17,000 from its June low. Kendrick now sees a risk that the official forecast may be too conservative. His outlook depends on continued inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs and sustained market momentum through year-end.
A further recovery could bring the $126,000 record high back into focus. However, Standard Chartered has not adopted that level as its official year-end target.
Also Read: Bitcoin Price May Bottom Between September and November: VanEck
This article contains market analysis and price predictions. These are not guarantees. Crypto markets are volatile. Always DYOR. Not financial advice.
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