Bitcoin Shows Bottoming Signals As LTH Losses Deepen 2026

By Amrin Sanjay | Edited By Ammar Raza,August 12, 2026, 5:00 PM

Bitcoin is showing several characteristics associated with historical market bottoms, but the latest on-chain data does not yet establish a definitive cycle low. CryptoQuant’s adjusted NUPL analysis, attributed to analyst MorenoDV, suggests long-term holders are experiencing meaningful unrealized losses as BTC trades well below its cycle peak.

Bitcoin aNUPL Signals a Bottoming Phase, Not a Final Low

Adjusted NUPL measures unrealized profit and loss while reducing distortions from inactive supply. The latest structure shows long-term holders’ aNUPL below the broader market average and in negative territory, indicating that experienced holders are carrying increasing mark-to-market losses.

That matters because previous major Bitcoin bottoms developed when losses spread beyond short-term speculators and affected established holders. However, today’s readings remain less severe than the prolonged negative conditions seen during earlier macro capitulations.

Also Read: Binance Bitcoin Reserves Climb to Six-Month High of 667,500 BTC

Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Face Deeper Unrealized Losses

Long-term-holder stress can influence supply because these investors typically have greater conviction and lower sensitivity to short-term volatility. If losses continue expanding, some holders could sell, potentially creating another wave of realized losses and accelerating capitulation.

There is also an alternative outcome. Stronger holders may absorb coins sold by investors with higher cost bases, gradually reducing available supply and allowing BTC to form a more durable base without repeating the extreme drawdowns of earlier cycles. CryptoQuant has previously described this process as a transfer of pain toward stronger hands.

Bitcoin ETF Flows Add Demand but Do Not Confirm a Bottom

ETF demand provides an important counterweight to on-chain stress. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $853.5 million in net inflows during the week ended August 7, according to data from SoSoValue, showing renewed demand even as BTC remained under pressure.

That flow is encouraging, but one strong week cannot prove institutional accumulation has returned permanently. ETF flows can reverse with changes in liquidity, interest-rate expectations and risk appetite, meaning investors should compare them with realized losses, price structure and holder behavior rather than treat them as a standalone bottom signal.

Bitcoin Price and Loss Realization Will Shape What Comes Next

BTC was trading around $64,200 on August 12, leaving the asset roughly 50% below its cycle high. The next confirmation should come from behavior rather than a single indicator: deeper LTH losses accompanied by heavy realized selling would strengthen the capitulation case.

Conversely, BTC holding a higher low while LTH aNUPL recovers toward zero would suggest that selling pressure is being absorbed. For traders and long-term investors, the key lesson is that the current data describes a bottoming process, not a confirmed bottom.

Also Read: David Schwartz Challenges Bitcoin Knots as BIP-110 Branch Stalls

This article contains market analysis and price predictions. These are not guarantees. Crypto markets are volatile. Always DYOR. Not financial advice.