Bitcoin surpasses $78K, highest price since February 2026

Bitcoin has climbed above $78,000, its highest price since February 2026, with the market for Bitcoin above $62,000 on April 18 at 100% YES.

Market reaction

The move toward $78,000 has shifted odds across Bitcoin price target markets. Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by December 31 now trades at 40.5% YES, up from 34% a week ago. The $150,000 target sits at 11% YES. The gap between those two numbers captures the difference between a reachable rally and a historically rare one, with regulatory shifts and macroeconomic pressure still in play.

Why it matters

Sub-markets for Bitcoin’s all-time high by date have also moved. The June 30 market remains low at 3% YES, but September 30 has jumped to 10% YES, and December 31 is at 16% YES. Traders are pricing in a higher probability of a new all-time high in the second half of the year.

The Bitcoin price on April 18 market has $356,534 in actual USDC traded, the highest volume among these contracts. Liquidity depth is moderate: it takes $8,640 to move the $100,000 target by 5 points, meaning a single large trade could cause noticeable price swings.

At 38¢, a YES share on the $100,000 target pays $1 if Bitcoin hits the mark, a 2.63x return. Whether that payout materializes depends on sustained institutional buying and regulatory developments.

What to watch

The Federal Reserve’s data release on April 21 could move Bitcoin’s momentum. Dovish signals from the Fed would likely push odds on the $100,000 target higher.

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