A crypto market analyst has shared the key levels to watch as Bitcoin (BTC) confirms a key level as support for the first time in months, opening the door to a continuation of its April recovery rally.
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Bitcoin EMA Reclaim Signals More Upside Potential
After closing the week above a crucial level, Bitcoin jumped 2.2% to break above the $80,000 resistance for the first time since January. The flagship crypto had been trading between $74,000 and $79,000 for the past few weeks, failing to reclaim the range’s upper boundary despite multiple attempts.
On Sunday, BTC closed above the $78,000 mark for the second consecutive week, confirming its 21-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) as support. Previously, analyst Rekt Capital highlighted the 21-week and 50-week EMAs as two key levels for the cryptocurrency’s ongoing rally, explaining that these moving averages tend to act as support during bull markets and as strong resistance during bear markets.
In a Monday analysis, the market observer noted that these levels “didn’t flip into a picture-perfect resistance” this time despite losing them as support after its pre-bearish crossover at the start of the year.
Nonetheless, their divergence created a “general supply area” rather than the “general demand area” configuration, typically seen during bull markets. Now, “BTC has Weekly Closed above the EMA, performed a very volatile retest of it, and Weekly Closed above it again.”
As a result, Bitcoin is positioned for upside, the analyst affirmed, adding that it has the price strength confirmation after last week’s close, but it will need continued stability in the absence of a follow-through move higher.
If trend continuation comes, the analyst suggested that a surge deeper into the supply zone is likely, with the 50-week EMA, currently around the $86,000-$87,000 area, as the ultimate stop on any upside wick.
“Generally, though, anything within this supply area is where the price should be rejecting and failing to rally higher,” he warned.
BTC At Trend Continuation Or Rally Ceiling?
As Bitcoin attempts to reclaim the $80,000 level, Rekt Capital affirmed that the $82,500 region “doesn’t have a defined role.” Notably, this crucial horizontal area has served as strong support and marks the base of a macro triangle formation that was lost during the February price crash.
“The first time price reached it, we produced a decent rebound into new All Time Highs. The next time the price tagged the same level, we produced a much lesser rally, a sign that the support there was already weakening. Now, $82,500 doesn’t have a defined role. But we may be defining it as we speak,” the analyst stated.
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He explained that a rejection without breaking beyond this resistance would make this the price ceiling, forcing a retest of BTC’s old All-Time Highs (ATH) area between $69,000 and $74,000, as we are just halfway through the bear market. In addition, Bitcoin has not been able to reclaim a macro triangle during this part of the cycle, once the price breaks down.
Rekt Capital pointed out that to invalidate the Four-Year Cycle thesis and call the end of the bear market, BTC would need to break back above the macro triangle base on the monthly timeframe and above its macro downtrend, located above the $96,000 area.
Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
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