Bitcoin trades 30% below $126K ATH amid consecutive bear markets

Bitcoin is trading roughly 30% below its $126,272 all-time high from October 2025, but the Polymarket contract for BTC dipping below $68,000 on April 24 sits at just 0.1% YES, unchanged from a day ago.

Market reaction

The April 24 market has seen almost no activity: only $55 in actual USDC was traded on these contracts. It takes just $503 to move the market by 5 points, which means a single large trade could shift the odds substantially. The market for Bitcoin hitting $60,000 in April is completely inactive, with zero trades in the past 24 hours. Separately, the December 31, 2026 market for BTC reaching $200,000 prices at 4.9% YES.

Why it matters

The Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 drawdowns parallel the 2022 monetary tightening collapse, this time driven by US tariff policies rather than rate hikes. The 30% decline from the October ATH has pushed BTC into consecutive quarterly bear markets. Still, traders clearly don’t expect a crash to $68,000 levels, at least not by April 24. The thin liquidity on these contracts means the odds themselves carry limited informational weight.

What to watch

The April 24 CPI print and US-Iran ceasefire developments could move Bitcoin sharply in either direction. Any Federal Reserve communication would also matter. At 0.1¢, a YES share pays $1 if Bitcoin falls below $68,000 on April 24, a 1,000x return. That would require a sudden collapse in the next few hours without any obvious catalyst currently in play.

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