Bitcoin transaction volume surpasses Visa, Mastercard in 2025

Bitcoin’s transaction volume outpaced Visa and Mastercard in 2025. The odds of Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by December 31, 2026, are at 4.8% YES.

The 2025 volume surge mainly reflects institutional transactions rather than retail use. Bitcoin’s volumes are largely wholesale and institutional, unlike Visa and Mastercard, which process consumer payments. The Bitcoin price target market for $80,000 in April has dropped sharply, now at 14.5% YES, down from 26% yesterday.

The April market reflects skepticism about short-term retail-driven price spikes, with a 37-point drop to 14.5% YES. The long-term December 31 market for $200,000 holds steady at 4.8% YES. Traders appear to read the structural shift in transaction volume as a positive long-term signal while discounting near-term price action.

The $80,000 market has decent liquidity, with $125,323 in USDC traded daily and an $8,440 cost to move the price by 5 points. The largest move was a 37-point drop, which points to significant volatility. The $200,000 market, with lower liquidity, shows stable odds.

The story here is institutional adoption, not a retail surge. At 4.8%, a YES share for $200,000 by December 31, 2026, pays $1, a 20.8x return. Traders betting on this would need to believe in continued institutional growth and Bitcoin becoming a larger part of the financial system’s settlement layer.

Watch for announcements from BlackRock and Fidelity. Their ETF inflows or strategic moves could provide clearer signals on Bitcoin’s price direction.

Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.