On Friday, August 14, Bitcoin [BTC] briefly fell below the $63k mark, falling as low as $62,535. Incidentally, earlier in August, the same $62.5k area set up a Bitcoin price rebound up to $65.5k.
The BTC average production cost, or mining cost, stood at $76.5k. Despite a 17% drawdown from this price level, miners remained resilient.
Weak selling pressure from miners highlighted this point, and Bitcoin miner stocks have outperformed the leading crypto so far in 2026.
The latest rejection from the $65k supply zone underlined weakness from the bulls. However, there is whale accumulation behind the scenes. Here are some recovery signals to watch out for.
“June whale signal intact” but market recovery might need more activity onchain
Crypto analyst Woominkyu used onchain data of BTC held by various wallet cohorts to understand what each of them was doing. Wallets holding 100 Bitcoin or more, which can be classified as whale wallets, have added 54,000 Bitcoin to their holdings since June 14.
Meanwhile, shark and retail wallets have been selling their holdings. Though whales were buying, the BTC price was stuck below the $65k supply zone.
The metric above shows the share of UTXOs whose current market price is above the price at which they last moved, or are in profit. The 30-day average is at 53.7%, compared to the yearly average of 74.6%.
Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr. used this metric to demonstrate that there was continued stress among holders.
The only bright point is that the pace of deterioration in the 30-day average has slowed, evidenced by the slight bounce from 48% to 53.7% in recent days.
The 30-day moving average of the total Bitcoin transferred across the network saw a 23% boost from its April low at 627.7k BTC to 769.1k BTC now. The 30DMA is also above the 365-day moving average.
Sustained recovery in the total transfer volume would be a good sign of an uptick in activity. It is unclear, based on just this metric, if the moved BTC is being accumulated or distributed, if they are moved at a profit or at a loss.
Improvement in UTXOs in profit and increased coin movement would signal more robust onchain conditions, which could help signal a potential market recovery.
Final Summary
- The Bitcoin price action has been stuck below the $65k supply zone in recent weeks, though whale wallets purchased 54,000 more BTC since mid-June.
- Onchain activity is recovering faster than the share of coins in profit. A rise in the share of coins in profit, alongside higher Bitcoin transfer volume, would be a positive sign.
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