If you think Bitcoin will close July where prediction markets expect, you may want to think again.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is already up more than 13% in July, putting it on track for its strongest monthly return since the 16.8% rally in 2022. The move above $66k has strengthened bullish sentiment, with Polymarket now pricing a 33% chance of BTC closing July above $70k.
Taken together, the strong monthly ROI and Bitcoin’s break above a key resistance level suggest prediction markets may not be too far off with their expectations. However, the road to $70k isn’t clear just yet.
One level to watch is $69k, where the Short-Term Holder (STH) cost basis currently sits. Since this is the average buy price for recent holders, it has become a key supply zone. If BTC trades into this level, many STHs could start taking profits, increasing sell-side pressure.
The next question is whether Bitcoin’s [BTC] bid side is strong enough to absorb that supply.
So far, the answer appears to be yes. According to SoSoValue, spot Bitcoin ETFs have logged seven straight days of net inflows, bringing in more than $700 million over the past week.
Add continued whale accumulation to the mix, and the bid side looks strong enough to absorb potential profit-taking, keeping the door open for a move toward $70k and aligning with Polymarket’s bullish odds.
That said, Bitcoin’s rally isn’t being driven by technicals alone. The macro backdrop matters just as much. With macro FUD starting to build, the focus now shifts to whether these headwinds can overpower the underlying bid.
If they do, Bitcoin’s next rejection may come from the macro side rather than the charts.
Bitcoin’s $70k breakout faces a macro test
Bitcoin’s July rally isn’t happening in isolation.
Instead, other assets have seen even stronger moves. From a technical perspective, oil has been one of the biggest performers, surging more than 25% this month.
Polymarket odds had only given oil a 34% chance of breaking above $90 per barrel by the end of July, but the market has already moved past that level, with oil now trading around $93 per barrel.
Against this backdrop, Bitcoin’s push toward $66k highlights strong resilience, backed by steady ETF inflows. But the key question is whether this demand can withstand rising macro pressure.
Oil may only be one piece of the puzzle. Treasury yields across the 10-year and 30-year maturities have climbed to multi-month highs, with the 30-year yield nearing levels last seen during the lead-up to the Global Financial Crisis.
From a macro perspective, rising yields make safer assets more attractive, while higher oil prices bring back concerns around near-term inflation. Together, these factors suggest investors are becoming more cautious, creating a potential headwind for risk assets like Bitcoin.
Against this backdrop, Bitcoin’s technical setup becomes even more important.
As the chart above shows, BTC is approaching a key resistance zone around the Short-Term Holder (STH) realized price. With macro FUD building, this level could trigger profit-taking. So far, ETF inflows have helped absorb the selling pressure, but if that trend reverses, Bitcoin’s July target could face a major setback.
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