Bitcoin’s February Dip to $60K Marked Cycle Low

3 signals converged at the February low: weekly RSI at a 4-year low, the sentiment index at its worst, and BTC retesting the 2021 cycle high.

Popular crypto analyst Ash Crypto has said that Bitcoin’s drop to around $60,000 in February 2026 was the bottom of the current market cycle, based on a pattern he says has played out precisely across the past two cycles.

If he’s right, the king cryptocurrency may already be in the early stages of a new leg higher.

The 23-Month Pattern Behind the Call

Ash Crypto’s argument is simple:

“Each cycle, BTC has made a new ATH,” he wrote on X. “And the bottom happened exactly 23 months after making a new ATH.”

To back his theory, he went back to January 2017 when BTC hit an all-time high. This was followed 23 months later by a cycle low in December 2018.

The same thing happened in the cycle after that, the analyst said. BTC hit its peak in December 2020, and 23 months later, in November 2022, it bottomed.

“This cycle, Bitcoin made a new ATH in March 2024. If it goes by history, the bottom has already happened in February 2026 (23 months),” the analyst concluded.

This was right around the time BTC touched the $60,000 level, then went back above $70,000.

The timing alone would be easy to dismiss, but Ash Crypto added three technical signals that all fired during the low earlier in the year. The weekly RSI dropped to a four-year low. The sentiment index hit its worst reading on record. And Bitcoin retested the 2021 cycle high.

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“All these things combined have previously marked the bottom for Bitcoin,” he wrote, “and maybe ‘THIS TIME IT’S NOT DIFFERENT.’”

On-chain data from analyst Ali Martinez tells a similar story, at least partially. Bitcoin’s Sharpe Ratio collapsed to -43 before recovering to around 20, suggesting that the market absorbed the worst of the selling.

At the same time, the share of Bitcoin’s realized market cap held by people who bought within the last month has fallen below 7%, which in past cycles has meant retail is largely gone and supply has settled into stronger hands.

Bears Aren’t Convinced

Fellow analyst Ted Pillows is seeing things differently. According to him, a small bounce had happened, but he still expected new lows on the higher timeframe.

“That’s often how it works,” he wrote. “Temporary strength pulls people in and ends up becoming exit liquidity.”

Bitcoin was trading around $78,500 at the time of writing, and Ash Crypto sees two paths from here: a daily close above $80,000 that could push BTC to $86,000 to $90,000, or a rejection that pulls it back into the $68,000 to $74,000 range.

Its latest bounce was helped along by news of an extended US-Iran ceasefire, which lifted the broader market before fresh tension reports stopped the OG crypto just short of $80,000.

On his part, Martinez has flagged $73,700 as the number to watch. Hold it, and the road to $96,000 stays open. Lose it and the bullish bottom call starts to look shaky, with $55,000 back in the conversation.