TL;DR:
- Bitcoin posted a gain of approximately 42.5% at the close of the third quarter of 2026, marking its second-best performance for this period since 2013.
- Net inflows into US ETFs reached $3.08 billion across nine consecutive sessions, though their absorption ratio fell from 25.6 times daily issuance on September 21 to 1.8 times on September 29.
- In the derivatives market, open interest on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) fell by 16,075 BTC on September 28 following the monthly contract expiry.
Bitcoin’s 42.5% Q3 rally concluded its run, leaving the bellwether cryptocurrency in its strongest quarterly performance since late 2024. However, analysts at Bitfinex noted that maintaining upward momentum will require direct spot market buying.
The technical warning from the Bitfinex Alpha report highlighted that reduced leverage lowers the risk of cascading liquidations. According to the firm’s assessment, lower borrowed exposure does not generate automatic buying—the catalyst must originate from spot market investors.
Meanwhile, derivatives data revealed that Bitcoin-denominated open interest did not track the price gains into late September. The Bitfinex analysis pointed out that narrowing basis premiums on futures contracts weakened the incentive for cash-and-carry basis trade strategies between spot and derivatives.
ETF Inflow Deceleration and Key Support Levels
During the final week of September, institutional purchases across US-listed exchange-traded funds slowed. Farside Investors data showed that daily net inflows declined from $999 million on Monday, September 22, to $134.5 million on Friday, September 26.
Despite the moderation, flows remained positive for nine straight sessions. BlackRock’s IBIT led weekly inflows with $1.16 billion, followed by Fidelity’s FBTC with $701.6 million.
Bitfinex’s absorption model calculated that ETFs went from absorbing 25.6 times daily miner issuance down to 1.8 times by the close of September 29. According to analyst estimates, the market requires funds to absorb roughly five times daily issuance—equivalent to about $190 million per session—to neutralize liquid market supply.
At the same time, the firm identified a cluster of 1.39 million BTC accumulated between $84,000 and $86,500. According to the report’s onchain metrics, a sustained rebound above the $85,000 threshold would return roughly 760,000 coins into unrealized profit and lift the overall supply in profit above 75%, a benchmark historically associated with transitions into durable bull trends.
In the near term, complementary technical analysis from Bitget Wallet placed immediate support between $81,500 and $83,000. According to its research team, price defense in this band will depend on the trajectory of the 10-year US Treasury yield and the absence of sustained net ETF outflows heading into early October.
Be the first to comment