Bitmine buys 45,000 ETH for $95.3M, holding 4.1% of total supply

Bitmine Immersion Technologies purchased 45,000 ETH valued at $95.3 million, while the market for Ethereum reaching $10,000 by the end of 2026 sits at 4% YES.

Bitmine now holds 4.976 million ETH, roughly 4.12% of total supply. Despite the scale of the purchase, the odds for Ethereum hitting $10,000 by December 31, 2026, have not moved from 4% YES.

The Ethereum market is thin, with daily actual USDC trading volume at just $100. It takes $1,446 to move the market by 5 percentage points, meaning a single large order could swing the odds substantially. The last notable movement was a 47-point drop from 50% to 2%.

Bitmine’s accumulation looks bullish on its own, but the market isn’t responding. For Ethereum to reach $10,000, institutional buying would need to translate into sustained upward price pressure, or a major technical catalyst like the Pectra upgrade boosting Layer 2 throughput would need to materialize. At 4¢ per YES share, the payout is 25x, but that price reflects how unlikely traders consider the outcome.

Watch for announcements from Vitalik Buterin or major protocol upgrades that could shift sentiment. Any concrete technological change or large-scale institutional commitment beyond Bitmine could move these odds quickly.

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