Bitwise advisor Jeff Park says Bitcoin’s next all-time high could be driven not by spot ETF flows alone, but by a fast-growing options market around BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust. Speaking at Bitcoin Conference 2026 in Las Vegas on Monday, Park argued that IBIT options are beginning to reshape the structure of Bitcoin volatility and may become the catalyst for the asset’s next major leg higher.
Why BlackRock’s Bitcoin Options Could Be Crucial
Park said the market has reached a notable inflection point: IBIT options open interest has now overtaken Deribit’s open interest “for the first time in a meaningful way.” For years, Deribit has served as the dominant venue for Bitcoin options, with traders often using its D-Vol index as a proxy for implied volatility across the market. Park argued that this approach is increasingly incomplete.
“For a long time people would look at Deribit’s D-Vol to calculate implied volatility but D-Vol is flawed,” Park said. “D-Vol only uses Deribit options. The reality is there’s lots of offshore exchanges, there’s now IBIT options, and we actually need more intelligent ways to quantify the parameterization of implied volatility.”
Related Reading
That shift matters because the US-listed IBIT options market appears to be pricing Bitcoin risk differently from offshore venues. Park pointed to BVIV US, which tracks implied volatility on IBIT, and BVIV, an offshore exchange aggregate correlation implied volatility measure. According to him, the spread between the two now sits around five points, with IBIT volatility trading higher than Deribit and other offshore exchange volatility.
The premium, in Park’s view, may reflect a different kind of buyer entering the Bitcoin options market. Unlike much of the offshore options complex, IBIT options can extend more than two years out, giving investors access to longer-tenor upside exposure through a regulated US product. That duration may be drawing demand from retail investors seeking leveraged participation in a potential Bitcoin rally without the same constraints typically associated with offshore venues.
Related Reading
“Where is that five points spread coming from? My guess is that there’s a lot of retail demand for upside participation in a longer tenor than what is promised usually on Deribit because IBIT options go out two years plus,” Park said. “And so my bold prediction is that we’re going to see a big Bitcoin move up.”
Park’s thesis centers on the interaction between options positioning and Bitcoin’s scarcity. If IBIT options continue to gain market share, and if upside call demand forces dealers or other market participants to hedge dynamically, the resulting gamma effects could add momentum to a rising market. In that setup, options activity would not merely reflect bullish sentiment; it could help amplify it.
“My prediction is that it is going to be led by IBIT options and the reflexive nature in which the gamma that is possibly created within something like Bitcoin due to its scarcity can really, really lead the next leg up in a meaningful way,” Park said.
At press time, BTC traded at $75,937.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Be the first to comment