- XRP trades at $1.0296 on August 10, pressing the Bollinger Band lower boundary at $1.01 with all four EMAs still overhead
- Analyst Ali Charts flagged a Tom DeMark monthly buy signal that previously preceded rallies of 1,074% and 973% on XRP
- Whales accumulated 380M XRP in a week as weekly ETF inflows fell to just $1.01M, the lowest in months
The XRP price prediction is leaning on a signal that’s only fired twice before, both times ahead of four-digit rallies. Analyst Ali Charts flagged a Tom DeMark Sequential buy on XRP’s monthly chart, the same setup that preceded 1,074% and 973% moves in 2020 and 2022
XRP Price Analysis: Bollinger Band Lower Boundary Is the Last Line Before $1
The daily chart shows XRP compressing near the bottom of its range, with the Bollinger Band lower boundary at $1.01 as the last meaningful technical floor before the $1 round number. Today’s session opened at $1.029, tapped $1.04, and is holding at $1.0296. The descending wedge that broke down last week has left price in a tight range between $1.01 and $1.06, with the Bollinger Band squeeze signaling a directional move is approaching.
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All four EMAs remain above price and slope downward. The 20-day at $1.0628 is the immediate resistance, followed by the Bollinger Band midline at $1.0703, the 50-day at $1.1008, the 100-day at $1.1812, and the 200-day at $1.3730. Analyst Ali Charts identified $1.06 as the key level to watch, noting that nearly 3 billion XRP were transacted at that price on-chain, making it the real resistance cluster that needs a monthly close above it to open the path toward $1.35 and then $1.64.
XRP Support and Resistance Levels, August 10, 2026
| Type | Price | Level |
| Resistance | $1.0628 | 20-day EMA, key level per Ali Charts |
| Resistance | $1.0703 | Bollinger Band midline |
| Resistance | $1.1008 | 50-day EMA |
| Resistance | $1.1305 | Bollinger Band upper boundary |
| Support | $1.0100 | Bollinger Band lower boundary, last floor |
| Support | $1 | Round number and psychological floor |
XRP Analysis: Tom DeMark Monthly Buy Signal and Whale Accumulation
Analyst Ali Charts published a five-part thread on August 9 laying out the case for an XRP bull rally. The core signal is a Tom DeMark Sequential buy on XRP’s monthly chart. Over the past six years this indicator has fired three notable signals on XRP: an April 2020 buy that preceded a 1,074% rally, an August 2022 buy that preceded a 973% rally, and an April 2025 sell signal that was followed by a 57% decline. The current signal is a buy, and if the prior pattern holds, it would mark a macro shift from bearish to bullish momentum.
Whale behavior is adding weight to the signal. On-chain data cited by Ali Charts shows large holders accumulated more than 380M XRP in the past week, a level of conviction at current prices that historically precedes rather than follows meaningful price moves. The key level remains $1.06. A monthly close above it, where nearly 3 billion XRP changed hands on-chain, would clear the way for $1.35 as the next target and $1.64 as the extended move.
XRP ETF Flows: Inflow Pace Is Slowing
XRP spot ETFs have maintained a positive weekly inflow streak through most of the summer, but the magnitude has declined sharply. Weekly inflows peaked at $60.50M in the week of May 15, then gradually compressed to $22.04M, $15.20M, $10.68M, and $10.66M through June, before dropping further to $17.19M, -$7.18M, $6.78M, $8.15M, and $14.86M through July. The most recent completed week of August 7 brought in just $1.01M, the lowest positive reading since the inflow streak began.
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Cumulative net inflows hold at $1.51B with total net assets at $953.19M, but the slowing weekly pace suggests institutional appetite for XRP via ETFs is cooling even as whale accumulation on-chain picks up, a divergence worth watching heading into the new week.
| Week | Weekly Net Inflow |
| May 15, 2026 | $60.50M |
| Jun 26, 2026 | $22.99M |
| Jul 2, 2026 | $17.19M |
| Jul 31, 2026 | $14.86M |
| Aug 7, 2026 | $1.01M |
XRP Derivatives: Longs Taking the Larger Share of Pain
Volume rose 12.64% to $1.31B while open interest fell 0.12% to $2.47B. Falling open interest alongside rising volume suggests existing positions are being closed rather than new ones being built.
Over 24 hours, longs absorbed $918.17K against $477.25K for shorts, meaning buyers betting on a recovery are currently taking more pain than those positioned against it. Top trader accounts at 3.4346 and position sizing at 1.9087 remain firmly net long across both metrics, sustaining the divergence between bullish positioning and bearish price action.
| Metric | Value | Interpretation |
| 24h Volume | $1.31B (+12.64%) | Modest activity, positions being closed |
| Open Interest | $2.47B (-0.12%) | Slight reduction in open positions |
| Top Trader L/S (Accounts) | 3.4346 | Large accounts heavily net long |
| Top Trader L/S (Positions) | 1.9087 | Position sizing also firmly net long |
| 24h Liquidations | $1.40M | Longs absorbed the majority |
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XRP Price Prediction: Upside and Downside Targets
Bullish Case, Target: $1.35 (Ali Charts Target)
The Bollinger Band lower boundary at $1.01 holds and XRP stabilizes above $1.03. The Tom DeMark monthly buy signal confirms as August closes above $1.06, clearing the on-chain resistance cluster where 3 billion XRP transacted. Whale accumulation continues absorbing available supply and top trader long positioning gets rewarded as price pushes through the 20-day EMA at $1.0628 toward $1.35.
Bearish Case, Risk Level: $1 (Round Number Floor)
The Bollinger Band lower boundary at $1.01 fails on a daily close and XRP loses the $1 round number, invalidating the Tom DeMark signal before it can confirm. ETF weekly inflows continuing to slow remove a key demand layer and long liquidations accelerate as the price drops below the psychological floor into territory not seen since before the 2026 recovery.
Conclusion
XRP’s setup right now comes down to whether a rare signal and quiet accumulation can outweigh a clearly cooling ETF trend. The Tom DeMark buy signal has only appeared twice before, and both times it was right, but confirmation still requires a monthly close above $1.06, a level XRP hasn’t threatened yet from its current range near $1.03.
Whale accumulation offers real support for that case, even as ETF inflows shrink to their smallest reading of the year. Hold $1.01 and the path to $1.35 stays alive; lose the $1 round number, and the whole thesis has to wait for the next monthly close to try again.
FAQs
XRP trades at $1.0296 and is holding just above the Bollinger Band lower boundary at $1.01. The bullish target is $1.35, extending to $1.64; the bearish risk level is a loss of the $1 round number.
It’s a monthly-chart indicator that has fired three times on XRP in six years. Two buy signals preceded rallies of 1,074% and 973%, while one sell signal preceded a 57% decline. The current signal is a buy.
Large holders added over 380M XRP in the past week, according to on-chain data cited by analyst Ali Charts. That kind of accumulation at current prices has historically come before major moves rather than after them.
Weekly inflows peaked at $60.50M in mid-May and have compressed steadily since, dropping to just $1.01M for the week of August 7, the lowest positive reading since the inflow streak began. Cumulative inflows remain positive at $1.51B, but the pace suggests cooling institutional demand.
$1.06 is the key level, where nearly 3 billion XRP have changed hands on-chain. A monthly close above it would confirm the Tom DeMark buy signal and open the path toward $1.35.
XRP has a rare bullish technical signal and real whale accumulation behind it, but slowing ETF inflows and a tight range just above $1 mean the setup isn’t confirmed yet. Weigh the bullish and bearish cases above against your own risk tolerance.
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