Prediction Markets have been booming in the US, with major platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket attracting high interest for their novel way to win—or lose—money.
As such financial products slowly begin to arrive on Canadian shores, locals remain (perhaps predictably?) cautious about the emerging offering.
More than 70% of Canadians say prediction markets are conceptually closer to gambling than investing, according to data from a new CIBC Investor’s Edge poll, with a majority of respondents believing they have no place within an investment platform.
“Our data shows Canadians are approaching these products cautiously, with nearly three-quarters saying prediction markets are more like gambling than investing,” says Luka Marjanovic, Managing Director and Head of CIBC Investor’s Edge.
Just 4% of Canadians have participated in prediction markets, a figure below that of options trading and cryptocurrency trading, while 88% claim to have no intention of engaging in them in the future.
Canadians show stronger confidence Portfolio investing and individual stock trading, associating prediction markets closer to sports betting, believing such platforms are not a level playing field and primarily benefit individuals with insider information.
“Prediction markets are drawing more attention from the investment community, but they are also raising important questions about how these products are positioned for everyday investors,” says Marjanovic. “The key for direct investors is understanding that these products require a different view of risk, time horizon, and decision-making than long-term investing.”
“As Canadians navigate a new environment of choice and risk, trust and confidence are more important than ever,” added Marjanovic. “That’s where platforms offering clear educational content, timely market research, and tools to help people better understand risk can play a meaningful role in supporting more informed decisions.”
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