TLDR
- ADA trades below $0.260 after gaining more than 11% the previous week.
- Derivatives data is mixed: long-to-short ratio near a one-month low, but funding rates turned positive.
- On-chain data from CryptoQuant shows overheating conditions in spot and futures markets.
- ADA options volume dropped over 92%, while weekly DEX volume jumped 2,965%.
- Analyst Jesse Olson says ADA could confirm a weekly buy signal soon.
Cardano (ADA) is taking a pause after a strong run last week. The token traded below $0.260 on Monday, following an 11% gain over the previous seven days.
ADA’s price sat near $0.2537 as of September 28. That is up 11.5% from the week before. The coin has struggled to clear resistance near $0.26 several times in recent days.
On September 23, ADA approached $0.26 before slipping back below $0.24 the next day. If the price closes above $0.26 on a four-hour chart, traders see a possible path toward $0.27, then $0.30.
If ADA falls below $0.25, the next support sits near $0.20, a level last tested in mid-September.
Derivatives Show Split Signals
Data from CoinGlass shows ADA’s long-to-short ratio at 0.63 on Monday. That is close to its lowest point in a month. A ratio under one usually means more traders expect the price to fall.
At the same time, Cardano’s funding rate turned positive on September 17. It read 0.0050% on Monday, meaning long traders are paying short traders. This normally points to bullish sentiment.
These two numbers do not agree. One says traders are betting down, the other says up. This mismatch reflects a lack of clear direction in the derivatives market right now.
Options trading also cooled off. ADA options volume fell 92.94% to $6,590, the sharpest drop among all reported metrics. Options open interest dipped slightly to $374,920. Overall futures open interest slipped 3.71% to $605.28 million.
On-Chain Data And Trading Volume
CryptoQuant’s summary data shows some caution signs. ADA’s futures markets have large whale orders, but also show sell-side dominance. Both futures and spot markets show signs of overheating following last week’s rally.
Cardano’s decentralized exchange (DEX) volume jumped 2,965% over the past week, according to DeFiLlama. Trading over the last 30 days totaled $248.31 million.
However, 24-hour DEX turnover was just $1.68 million on the same day. This suggests the monthly total came from short bursts of trading rather than steady daily activity. Cardano has seen similar volume spikes before, with weekly DEX volume topping $100 million multiple times since 2023.
On the technical side, ADA holds above its 50-day EMA at $0.215, 100-day EMA at $0.209, and 200-day EMA at $0.239. The four-hour RSI reads 55.54, above the neutral 50 mark. The MACD line sits at 0.0034, just below its signal line of 0.0041, with a negative histogram of 0.0007, pointing to fading momentum.
Analyst Jesse Olson posted on X that ADA is close to confirming a bullish signal. He said the daily chart is already bullish, the weekly chart is bullish, and a two-week chart confirmation could be next. He asked whether the coin “died,” implying the setup suggests otherwise.
$ADA will confirm a buy signal tomorrow on the weekly chart.
Daily chart is bullish.
Weekly chart is bullish.
2-week chart is next.Did this coin die?
If not, then… pic.twitter.com/mHMqiJPnyv
— Jesse Olson (@JesseOlson) September 26, 2026
For context, Bitcoin traded near $84,244 and Ethereum near $2,679 at the time of writing. XRP sat at $1.51. The total crypto market was valued near $2.98 trillion, with ADA’s market cap near $9.52 billion.
As of the latest reading, ADA price stood at $0.25691420, holding just under the key $0.26 resistance level.
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