Qatar has confirmed active communication with all parties in Islamabad, supporting Pakistan’s mediation in the US-Iran conflict. The odds of a US-Iran ceasefire by April 30 sit at 36.5% YES. Market reaction The Israel-Iran permanent […]
Italy’s gas reliance faces pressure as the Iran conflict disrupts energy supplies, with the Polymarket contract on whether the S&P 500 opens up on April 15 priced at 100% YES. ## Market reaction The Strait […]
Iran’s Judiciary Chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje’i called the US seizure of the Iranian commercial vessel Touska a “war crime.” The statement comes amid rising tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. The odds of Trump announcing the […]
The latest Middle East conflict has driven aviation fuel prices up, with airlines forced to prioritize long-haul routes. Crude oil hitting $90 by June sits at 71% YES, reflecting the market’s reaction to the supply […]
The U.S. believes a rift has emerged between Iran’s negotiation team and the Revolutionary Guard, potentially affecting diplomatic efforts. The odds of no US-Iran meetings by June 30, 2026, sit at 3.4% YES. Market reaction […]
Pakistani diplomatic sources report no Iranian delegation in Islamabad, raising questions about the timeline for US-Iran peace talks. A diplomatic meeting by April 30 is at 14.8% YES, up from 16% yesterday. Market reaction The […]
UnitedHealth reported earnings above expectations, and the S&P 500 up or down on April 17 market sits at 100% YES. Market reaction UnitedHealth’s earnings beat came during a period of oil market disruption tied to […]
Trump’s statement has cast doubt on a ceasefire extension. The odds for a formal end to military operations by April 30 sit at 36.5% YES, down from 36% a week ago. The April 30 market […]
Iran Air will restart domestic flights on Wednesday after a 50-day suspension caused by the ongoing conflict, a move that suggests some degree of de-escalation. The odds of Iran striking Israel by April 30 remain […]
Apple confirmed John Ternus will succeed Tim Cook as CEO, effective September 1, 2026. The Next CEO of Apple market resolved at 100% YES. ## Market reaction The announcement closed the market with no ambiguity. […]
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