Businesses seeking refunds for Trump’s tariffs are running into glitches with the new portal, and the EU retaliatory tariffs market on Polymarket has dropped to 15% YES, down from 30% a week ago. Market reaction […]
U.S. Marines have seized the Iranian-flagged ship Touska, which was carrying missile components from China. The Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by May 31 sits at ? YES. The seizure comes during the […]
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf announced that Iran will not engage in talks under threat and is prepared to reveal new “battlefield cards.” The odds of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 22 […]
Iran’s hardline actors are gaining influence within the regime, and the Polymarket contract on whether no qualifying US-Iran diplomatic meeting occurs by June 30, 2026, sits at 3.4% YES. Market reaction The odds have been […]
Brazil is feeling the economic pinch from the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, as rising global energy prices have increased the cost of cooking gas. On Polymarket, crude oil hitting $90 by June sits at 71¢ […]
John Ternus sent a memo confirming he will succeed Tim Cook as Apple’s CEO, and the market for Ternus becoming the next CEO now sits at 100% YES. Market reaction The memo removes any remaining […]
Aave has shed more than 23% of its value since Friday, and the protocol that bills itself as DeFi’s most trusted lender is now managing the fallout from one of the most disruptive exploits in […]
Vance is reportedly planning to travel to Pakistan for US-Iran negotiations, though plans remain unconfirmed. The market on no US-Iran meeting occurring by June 30, 2026, sits at 3.4% YES. Market reaction The US-Iran Diplomatic […]
Trump signed an executive order using the Defense Production Act to increase domestic energy production. The likelihood of WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 in April is now at 1.2% YES, down from 2% yesterday. By […]
Falling oil prices linked to potential US-Iran talks have nudged JGBs higher, easing inflation concerns. The WTI Crude Oil market for April 30 now has a lower likelihood of hitting $160, reflecting these de-escalation hopes. […]
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