Gulf states are concerned that ongoing US-Iran talks in Islamabad may reinforce Iran’s grip on the Strait of Hormuz. The odds of Trump holding a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30 have risen to […]
Kuwait has declared force majeure on its oil shipments due to the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. The probability of UK warships entering the strait by April 30 is at 8.5% YES. The blockade, […]
Iran’s top negotiator accused Trump of trying to turn negotiations into capitulation. The market for “no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting by June 30, 2026” is at 2.8% YES. ## Market reaction The 2.8% YES odds […]
An Israeli soldier’s destruction of a Jesus statue in Lebanon has sparked outrage, though the market for Trump endorsing the Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30 sits at 100% YES. The ceasefire, agreed upon […]
The UK publicly named Russia as the aggressor at the UN and urged de-escalation in Ukraine. The odds of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026, sit at 4% YES, down from 6% a week […]
With one day remaining before the April 21 deadline, the market on whether Trump will announce a US-Iran ceasefire breach is priced at 100% YES, reflecting full trader certainty that the announcement will happen. Market […]
A Lebanese lawmaker has declared that no ceasefire extension will happen without Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon. The Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30 market sits at 100% YES, but this withdrawal condition introduces […]
Tim Cook will step down as Apple’s CEO on September 1, 2026, with John Ternus set to take over. The leadership change has moved odds on NVIDIA being the largest company by market cap on […]
MicroStrategy, now operating as Strategy, has acquired 34,164 Bitcoin for $2.54 billion, pushing total holdings past 800,000 BTC (worth roughly $61.2 billion). With Bitcoin trading around $70,000-$75,000, the “Bitcoin Price Predictions for April 2026” market’s […]
Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, causing the largest oil supply shock since the 1970s. WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 in April 2026 is at significant risk given current market conditions. The closure has […]
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