Right now, what Bitcoin needs is a catalyst to keep HODL sentiment intact.
As AMBCrypto recently reported, Bitcoin was trading near $86,200, putting whales at roughly 39% unrealized profit and sharks at nearly 28% based on their respective cost basis. With BTC now down to $83k, the risk of profit-taking and a new wave of selling pressure is clearly back.
In this situation, Bitcoin needs a fresh catalyst to give HOLDers a reason to stay put instead of locking profits.
This becomes even more important as Bitcoin’s latest Fear & Greed reading adds another layer to the setup. As the chart below shows, BTC closed the last session with the index at 73, reclaiming this level for the first time since the 1st of October.
However, the index has since eased to 71. While it is still in the Greed zone, the pullback could be an early sign of sentiment starting to cool.
Taken together, the growing profit stack and the volatile Fear & Greed Index suggest that Bitcoin’s bullish setup is starting to look shaky. With whales and sharks sitting on sizable unrealized gains, a further shift in sentiment could lead to profit-taking and hence selling pressure.
Why are Bitcoin whales adding to holdings?
Against that backdrop, Santiment reported continued accumulation among wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC.
These wallets added 86,702 BTC over three weeks, lifting their combined holdings to the highest level since the 23rd of April. The increase suggested that larger holders continued building exposure despite Bitcoin’s recent weakness.
However, accumulation alone could not establish how long they intended to hold. If those wallets later sold, their larger balances could increase the supply entering the market.
For now, that remained a conditional risk rather than evidence that accumulation itself had turned bearish. A fresh catalyst could strengthen holders’ willingness to maintain their Bitcoin exposure through the pullback.
China’s crypto pivot could test Bitcoin’s HODL strength
Joseph Chee’s comments offered one potential narrative for investors to watch.
The former UBS Asia investment banking chief and Solana Company CEO discussed China potentially allowing greater crypto activity. He pointed to Hong Kong as a testing ground.
In his CNBC interview, Chee suggested that reopening access could trigger another crypto supercycle. His comments described a possibility, rather than an announced policy change.
Meanwhile, CryptoQuant data showed more than $3.3 billion worth of BTC leaving Binance over approximately two weeks. Weekly Outflows also reached their highest levels since 2023.
If this trend continues, China’s potential crypto pivot could give Bitcoin holders another reason to stay put.
The logic is straightforward: Whale accumulation and exchange outflows both point to the same thing: more BTC is moving into long-term hands. So, if the supercycle narrative continues to gain traction, the 39% and 28% unrealized profit levels could have even more room to expand, thus encouraging these investors to avoid selling into the current market weakness and HODL for bigger gains.
Thus, the recent dip in Bitcoin’s Fear and Greed Index could therefore be temporary, as on-chain signals continue to support HODLing through the current market FUD.
Final Summary
- Bitcoin sentiment is cooling, but whales and long-term holders are still accumulating.
- China’s crypto pivot could boost the supercycle narrative and encourage holders to keep HODLing.
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