Circle (CRCL) and Coinbase (COIN) Take a Hit as Analyst Sees Balanced Risk/Reward

TLDR

• Circle Internet Group (CRCL) fell 4.6% and Coinbase (COIN) dropped 4.2% on Wednesday after Raymond James rated both stocks Market Perform.
• Analyst Madison Suhr cited limited upside conviction, noting CRCL trades at roughly 18x its projected 2027 EBITDA.
• Coinbase faces added pressure from crypto’s downturn and incoming competition from E*Trade and Charles Schwab spot crypto trading.
• CRCL insiders sold $160.3 million worth of stock over the past three months with zero purchases recorded.
• The SA Quant system holds a Hold on CRCL and a Sell on COIN.

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Circle Internet Group (CRCL) stock dropped 4.6% on Wednesday after Raymond James initiated coverage with a Market Perform rating — the Wall Street equivalent of a polite shrug.

Circle Internet Group, CRCL

Analyst Madison Suhr published the note late Tuesday. He acknowledged the company’s position in the expanding digital asset space but said he lacks conviction there’s “meaningful upside” beyond what the market already expects.

“We acknowledge there is a lot to like, but with the stock trading at ~18x 2027E EBITDA, we see a balanced risk/reward,” Suhr wrote.

CRCL currently carries a forward P/E of 69.65 and a price-to-sales ratio of 4.64. The market cap sits at approximately $17.1 billion.

Coinbase (COIN) was also caught in the same note, falling 4.2% on the day. Suhr flagged growing competitive pressure as Morgan Stanley’s E*Trade has launched crypto spot trading, with Charles Schwab expected to follow.

“We have limited visibility into when crypto trading volume rebounds,” Suhr said of Coinbase.

The SA Quant system rates CRCL a Hold and COIN a Sell, offering little additional comfort to bulls.

Insider Selling Raises Questions

One of the more eyebrow-raising data points in the CRCL story right now is insider activity. Over the past three months, insiders have sold $160.3 million worth of stock. There have been zero insider purchases during that same period.

That kind of one-sided activity tends to get noticed, and it gives investors something to think about when weighing management’s confidence in the company’s near-term outlook.

CRCL’s GF Score stands at 40 out of 100. Growth scores a perfect 10/10, but profitability comes in at just 4/10. The company’s Altman Z-Score of 0.18 flags financial distress, which adds another layer of caution to the picture.

Crypto Competition Heating Up

The broader crypto trading landscape is getting more crowded. Bernstein and Piper Sandler both recently published notes suggesting that Robinhood Markets’ (HOOD) prediction markets revenue could soon outpace its crypto revenue.

That suggests speculative retail traders may be shifting interest from crypto trading toward prediction markets — a potential headwind for platforms that rely on crypto trading volume.

Raymond James noted it is “encouraged by Coinbase’s continued product innovations” but stopped short of a bullish call given the uncertainty around when trading volumes recover.

For Circle specifically, the USDC issuer remains well-positioned structurally in the digital asset ecosystem. But at current valuations and with insider selling at these levels, the Street appears to need more proof before upgrading the stock.

The Raymond James Market Perform rating on CRCL was issued following Tuesday’s close, with the stock reacting immediately at Wednesday’s open.