The CLARITY Act approval odds for 2026 dipped this week as Washington’s focus turned more toward AI policy discussions. Also, lawmakers are expecting that a Senate floor vote is not very likely before the July 4 recess.
Why Are CLARITY Act Odds Dropping?
The chances of crypto market structure legislation passing in the U.S. in 2026 have dropped to 48% on Kalshi from 50%. Meanwhile, Polymarket odds are now 51% down from 55% that the CLARITY Act would be signed into law in 2026.
Also, on Kalshi, the odds of passage before August were nearly 26%. Whilst, there are less than 2% odds of passage for CLARITY Act before July.
This comes as the Senate Banking Committee is more likely to be engaged in policy issues surrounding artificial intelligence. The committee will convene on June 11 for a meeting titled “Hearings to examine AI and the American dream, focusing on promoting innovation, affordability and American dominance.”
Speculation has grown over the coming hearing that AI policy could be prioritized over digital asset legislation. These concerns come as the lawmakers grapple with several marquee regulatory agendas at once.
For context, the CLARITY Act aims to create a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets in the United States. The bill, which passed the Senate Banking Committee recently, looks to specify roles of federal agencies in regulating the blockchain and cryptocurrencies. It also focuses on offering clearer definitions of crypto and blockchain-based assets.
Cynthia Lummis Discusses Approval Timeline
The drop came after recent comments by Senator Cynthia Lummis on the CLARITY Act approval. She noted that the lawmakers will need additional time before moving the legislation forward in the Senate. Recently, Lummis said that it is still uncertain if the bill will make it to the Senate before Congress recess for the July 4 holiday.
“I think it’s possible, but maybe more likely we finish it before the August recess,” Lummis said.
However, she said lawmakers are more likely to finish the legislation before the August recess. Her remarks dampened investor optimism, following a recent surge in activity around crypto-related legislation in Congress.
The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act was recently placed on the Senate Legislative Calendar. Now, the question is whether or not additional momentum can be gained to potentially have the bill debated in the next few weeks. However, there is no official announcement of the voting schedule.
Though prediction market sentiment took a hit recently, traders are still pricing a real possibility that crypto market structure legislation will make its way through Congress.
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