CLARITY Act Odds Fall to 30% as Senate Clock Ticks

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• Galaxy Research cut the odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law this year to 30% as bipartisan support remains uncertain.
• Senators released the first combined version of the bill, adding ethics rules, enforcement measures and changes to the GENIUS Act.
• Democratic negotiators said the proposal still falls short, leaving little time to secure the votes needed before Congress’ August recess.

Galaxy Research lowered its estimated probability of the legislation passing in 2026 to 30%, down from 50% last month, citing shrinking legislative time, unresolved political disagreements and an increasingly difficult vote count in the Senate.

Combined Draft Brings Months of Negotiations Together

The newly published 616-page proposal consolidates the cryptocurrency market structure legislation previously approved by the Senate Banking and Agriculture committees into a single package. It also incorporates several negotiated additions, including a new ethics framework, expanded law enforcement provisions and amendments to the recently approved GENIUS Act.

Among the most notable changes are restrictions preventing senior government officials and their spouses from issuing or sponsoring digital assets while in office, updated protections for software developers and self-custody users, a dedicated framework for digital asset custodians and broader anti-fraud authorities for federal and state agencies.

CLARITY Act Odds Fall to 30% as Senate Clock Ticks

Seven Democratic senators involved in negotiations—including Mark Warner, Cory Booker, Ruben Gallego, Raphael Warnock, Angela Alsobrooks, Catherine Cortez Masto and John Hickenlooper—said the current proposal still lacks stronger protections on ethics, consumer safeguards, market integrity and illicit finance, while indicating they remain open to further negotiations.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren separately criticized the legislation, arguing it would make it easier for criminals and sanctioned actors to move funds through the financial system while objecting to the bill’s ethics provisions.

Calendar Pressure Is Replacing Policy Debate

Even if negotiators reach a compromise, time is becoming an equally significant obstacle.

Republicans officially control 53 Senate seats, but Galaxy Research estimates the party can currently rely on roughly 50 dependable votes, leaving leadership dependent on Democratic support to overcome the Senate’s 60-vote filibuster threshold.

Majority Leader John Thune has acknowledged it is unlikely the Senate will complete work on all pending crypto legislation before lawmakers leave Washington, though leadership hopes to at least begin floor consideration of CLARITY. Analysts believe the practical window to launch the legislative process is rapidly closing as debate, amendments and procedural votes must all be completed before the August recess.

A Narrow Window for a Breakthrough

Supporters continue to describe CLARITY as the most comprehensive attempt yet to establish a federal framework for digital asset markets, covering everything from market structure and stablecoins to custody and investor protections.

However, with Congress scheduled to shift its focus to appropriations and election-related priorities after the August recess, analysts warn that failing to advance the bill in the coming days could significantly reduce its chances of becoming law this year. For now, the publication of the combined text marks progress in the legislative process – but not a guarantee that lawmakers have the votes needed to finish it.