Clearing Strait of Hormuz mines to take 6 months, oil at $95/barrel

The Pentagon has informed Congress that clearing mines from the Strait of Hormuz will take six months, with oil prices volatile at $95 per barrel. The market predicting WTI Crude Oil to hit $160 in April sits at 1% YES.

Market reaction

The six-month timeline points to prolonged disruption, which could support higher oil prices. Odds for WTI hitting $160 in April hold at 1%, down from 2% last week. Traders are skeptical of rapid price escalation even with a six-month clearance window. Liquidity is thin: daily actual USDC volume at just $514, and $1,955 needed to move the price 5 points.

Why it matters

The Pentagon’s statement directly affects the Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization market, making normalization by end of April far less likely. That market has not yet reflected specific odds, but a six-month clearance timeline is plainly incompatible with an April resolution.

What to watch

The question is whether this assessment changes trader behavior or gets treated as already priced in. The $160 payout currently trades at 1¢. A YES resolution pays $1, a potential 100x return, but that price reflects very low confidence in such an outcome. Watch for statements from Donald Trump, OPEC+ members, and the EIA. Military actions, ceasefire extensions, or changes in oil production could move these markets quickly.

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