Coinbase (COIN) Stock Drops 6% as Baird Warns Summer Could Get Worse

TLDR

• Baird Equity Research cut its Coinbase price target to $142 from $160, keeping a Neutral rating and naming it a “Bearish Fresh Pick.”
• Coinbase stock is down 27% year-to-date, trading around $153–$164, with Bitcoin also sliding roughly 5.9% to its lowest level since April.
• Baird expects Q2 revenue to miss Wall Street estimates by 5%–6% due to weak trading volumes.
• The CLARITY Act looks unlikely to pass before mid-term elections, removing a potential catalyst for the crypto market.
• Despite Baird’s bearish stance, 64% of the 39 analysts tracked by FactSet still have a Buy rating, with an average price target of $231.

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Coinbase has had a rough 2026. The stock is down 27% for the year, and according to Baird Equity Research, things may not improve much this summer.

Coinbase Global, Inc., COIN

Baird reiterated its Neutral rating on Coinbase (COIN) on Friday and lowered its price target to $142 from $160. The firm also designated COIN as a “Bearish Fresh Pick,” pointing to weak trading volumes as the core problem.

The stock dropped further in premarket trading Friday, falling 3.1% to $159.12. By the time markets opened, COIN was trading around $153, down more than 6.6% on the day. Bitcoin fell roughly 5.9% to its lowest level since April, dragging crypto-related names with it.

Analyst David J. Koning at Baird said early June saw some volume pickup, but he believes that activity came from heavy selling of Bitcoin — not fresh buying interest. “We think it’s due to significant trading out of Bitcoin, which may be followed by limited interest in trading,” he wrote.

Q2 Revenue Expected to Miss

Baird expects Coinbase’s second-quarter revenue to come in 5% to 6% below Wall Street’s consensus estimates. That’s a problem for a company still heavily reliant on crypto trading fees.

Nine analysts have already revised their earnings estimates downward for the upcoming period, according to InvestingPro data. The platform also flagged the stock as appearing overvalued at current levels.

Coinbase currently trades at roughly 35 times its estimated 2027 earnings per share. Baird pointed to weak multiples across beat-and-raise fintech names — including Mastercard, Visa, and Toast — as a warning sign for where Coinbase’s valuation could head.

The broader competition for trader attention isn’t helping either. The S&P 500 has outperformed crypto this year, and high consumer inflation and borrowing costs are keeping retail traders cautious. AI stocks and a wave of IPOs are also pulling attention away from crypto.

CLARITY Act Faces an Uphill Battle

The CLARITY Act — a market-structure bill that crypto supporters say could unlock the asset class — is looking increasingly unlikely to pass this year. Congress has limited time before its monthlong summer recess and the ramp-up of mid-term election campaigning.

Traders on prediction market Polymarket put the bill’s chances of becoming law this year at 57%, down from 65% a month ago.

Elsewhere in crypto, Compass Point has a Sell rating on COIN with a $140 price target. B. Riley cut its target to $203 from $243, citing a softer near-term revenue backdrop.

Baird is in the minority on Wall Street overall. Of 39 analysts tracked by FactSet, 64% rate COIN a Buy, with a consensus price target of $231 — well above where the stock is trading today.

Bitcoin fell to its lowest point since April on Friday, with Ether also hitting a three-month low.