Costco (COST) Stock: Analysts Stay Bullish Even as June Sales Disappoint Some Forecasts

TLDR

• Evercore ISI reiterated an Outperform rating and $1,100 price target on Costco following June comparable sales data
• Core comparable sales rose 7.6% in the U.S. and 7.0% globally, both excluding gas and foreign exchange
• Goldman Sachs maintained a Buy rating with a $1,159 price target; J.P. Morgan held Buy at $1,100
• U.S. traffic rose 3.2%, keeping the two-year trend above 6% for a seventh straight month
• Tougher year-over-year comparisons are expected in July and August, with traffic comps becoming harder by 100–150 basis points

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Costco (COST) stock is holding its ground on Wall Street after the retailer posted its June sales report, with multiple analysts choosing to stand pat on their ratings and price targets.

Costco Wholesale Corporation, COST

Evercore ISI reiterated an Outperform rating and kept its $1,100 price target in place. The firm cited Costco’s core comparable sales increase of 7.6% in the U.S. and 7.0% globally, both figures excluding gas and foreign exchange effects.

COST was trading around the $1,050–$1,060 range at the time of the ratings, meaning the Evercore target implies modest upside from current levels. InvestingPro data flags the stock as overvalued relative to its Fair Value estimate.

U.S. traffic rose 3.2% in June. That kept the two-year stacked traffic comp above 6% for the seventh consecutive month, a streak that analysts have been watching closely.

Gas sales added to the positive picture. They rose in the low-30% range year-over-year, driven by a 22% jump in average selling price and high-single-digit growth in gallons sold.

U.S. ticket growth excluding gas came in at 4.3%. Evercore broke that down as roughly 1–2% from inflation, with the rest coming from items per basket and product mix.

International Results Softer

Outside the U.S., results were a bit softer. Canada core comps came in at 4.9%, which was down 120 basis points from the prior three-month average. Other international markets posted 5.6%, also down 110 basis points from recent trend.

June’s overall comparable sales growth was 8.8%, though core comps of 7.0% represented a step down from May’s 8.7%.

Goldman Sachs analyst Kate McShane maintained a Buy rating with a $1,159 price target. McShane noted that while June results came in slightly below consensus, the gap was partly explained by cannibalization from newer store locations rather than any softness in underlying demand.

McShane also highlighted that management sees no meaningful change in consumer behavior or the competitive environment. Membership trends and traffic remain intact.

J.P. Morgan joined the chorus, also maintaining a Buy rating with a $1,100 price target.

Baird kept its Outperform rating at $1,100. Gordon Haskett reiterated Buy and raised its target to $1,200, calling June’s 7.0% same-store sales growth slightly below forecast but still solid.

Tougher Comps Ahead

Not everyone was as upbeat. DA Davidson and Citi both kept Neutral ratings, with targets of $1,000 and $1,020 respectively. Both pointed to the deceleration in sales growth from May to June.

Telsey reaffirmed Outperform at $1,135 but acknowledged June fell short of its 10.6% projection.

Evercore flagged that comparisons will get harder over the summer. Traffic comps become 100 basis points more difficult in July and 150 basis points harder in the U.S.

Costco’s overall revenue growth over the last twelve months stands at 9.23%, supporting a market cap of $422.69 billion.

Goldman’s McShane also pointed to Costco’s experiments with standalone gas stations as a detail worth watching, calling it a sign of the company’s long-term thinking around member service.