Costco (COST) Stock Rises as Uber Eats Expands to 48 States Before Q4 Earnings

TLDR

• Costco reports Q4 earnings on September 24, with Q4 net sales already confirmed at $93.9 billion, up 11.3% year-over-year
• Membership renewal rates have been declining, dropping to 92.1% in Q2 FY2026, though management says the pressure is easing
• Costco has expanded its Uber Eats delivery partnership from 17 to 48 U.S. states, covering nearly 600 locations
• RBC Capital maintained a Sector Perform rating with a $1,000 price target, projecting Q4 EPS of $6.54
• Wall Street consensus is Moderate Buy, with an average price target of around $1,090, implying roughly 21% upside

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Costco is heading into its Q4 earnings report on September 24 with a lot already on the table. The stock was trading around $903 on Wednesday, up slightly after news of its expanded Uber Eats partnership.

Costco Wholesale Corporation, COST

Q4 net sales came in at $93.9 billion, up 11.3% year-over-year. Comparable sales grew 9.4%, or 6.7% when stripping out fuel and foreign exchange. Digitally enabled sales rose 19.5%.

Because Costco reports monthly sales figures, investors already have a clear picture of the top line heading into earnings day. What remains unknown is how efficiently the company turned those sales into profit.

Wall Street consensus points to EPS growth of 11.4% and revenue growth of 10.1% year-over-year. RBC Capital is slightly more optimistic, projecting adjusted EPS of $6.54 against a consensus of $6.50.

Membership Renewal Rates in Focus

The bigger question for earnings day is membership. Renewal rates have been slipping for several consecutive quarters, falling from 93.0% in Q2 FY2025 to 92.1% in Q2 FY2026.

Costco had flagged this back in late 2024, noting that digitally acquired members historically renew at slightly lower rates. Management now says the pressure is easing.

CFO Gary Millerchip described renewal rates as having “leveled out” on the last earnings call, though he stopped short of giving formal guidance.

Membership fees are a small portion of revenue but punch well above their weight. In FY2025, Costco generated $5.32 billion in membership fees, equivalent to about 51% of its $10.38 billion in operating income.

Renewal rates have fallen for several straight quarters, which has weighed on the stock. COST is currently about 4% below its first post-Q3 close and around 8% below where it sat before that report.

Uber Eats Expansion Adds Another Layer

On Wednesday, Uber Eats announced it expanded its Costco delivery partnership from 17 U.S. states to 48, with nearly 600 Costco locations now on the platform.

As part of the deal, eligible Costco members get 50% off their first year of Uber One membership, and 20% off in subsequent years.

Costco members as of June 2026 stood at 82.90 million, a growth rate that was down 4% year-over-year. The Uber Eats expansion appears aimed at adding value to existing memberships and potentially attracting new ones.

A report from Edgewater Research on Tuesday also noted that DoorDash may be looking to establish its own delivery partnership with Costco, and that Costco could limit delivery access to members only.

RBC Capital noted it does not expect sentiment to shift materially following the September 24 report. The firm’s $1,000 price target is based on roughly 40 times its FY2028 adjusted EPS estimate of $25.00.

Of 21 analysts covering the stock, 15 rate it a Buy, five a Hold, and one a Sell. The average price target sits at $1,090.79.