CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju says Bitcoin may have avoided a much deeper bear market because Michael Saylor’s Strategy and spot ETF buyers absorbed massive selling from older BTC holders.
In a post on X, Ki argued that the market should not compare Strategy’s recent 32 BTC sale with the much larger flow that came from “OG whales” over the past two years. His claim is that old Bitcoin holders sold about 1.24 million BTC into demand from Saylor and exchange-traded funds, helping keep Bitcoin far above where it may have traded without those buyers.
Bitcoin could be closer to $22,000 today without that absorption. BTC was recently trading near $60,000, meaning the counterfactual implies a price more than 60% lower than current levels.
That does not mean $22,000 is a precise model output. It is better read as a supply-demand argument. When long-dormant holders distribute coins, the market needs a large structural bid to prevent forced repricing. Over the past two years, Strategy and ETFs became that bid.
Strategy’s 32 BTC Sale Looks Small Beside The Bigger Flow
The debate was triggered by Strategy’s rare Bitcoin sale. The company sold 32 BTC between May 26 and May 31 for about $2.5 million, with proceeds expected to support preferred-stock distributions.
The sale mattered because Saylor’s public image has been built around relentless Bitcoin accumulation. But the scale is tiny relative to Strategy’s balance sheet. Strategy’s Bitcoin dashboard shows 843,706 BTC held as of May 31, acquired for about $63.87 billion at an average purchase price of $75,699.
That puts the 32 BTC sale at roughly 0.004% of Strategy’s holdings. The market reaction was symbolic, not supply-driven. A 32 BTC disposal cannot explain a major Bitcoin drawdown. The much larger issue is whether institutional buyers are still strong enough to offset selling from early holders, ETF redemptions and leveraged traders.
That is why Ki’s point matters. The real market question is not whether Strategy sold a small amount of Bitcoin. It is whether the same corporate and ETF demand that absorbed 1.24 million BTC can keep absorbing supply when prices weaken.
ETFs Have Become The Market’s Shock Absorber
Spot Bitcoin ETFs changed the structure of BTC demand by turning Bitcoin into a regulated brokerage-account asset for institutions, advisors and passive investors. During the strongest phase of inflows, that demand helped pull coins away from sellers and into longer-term fund custody.
That support has now weakened. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recently suffered a record 13-day outflow streak, with about $4.33 billion leaving funds between May 15 and June 3. When ETF flows are positive, they can absorb whale selling. When they turn negative, Bitcoin loses one of its cleanest liquidity buffers.
That makes the current drawdown more dangerous than a normal dip. Old holders have already distributed a large amount of supply, Strategy is now showing limited flexibility around treasury management, and ETF buyers have stopped providing the same steady bid.
Bitcoin’s Price Now Depends On Absorption
Bitcoin’s latest weakness has pushed the market back into a basic liquidity test. If ETF outflows slow and corporate buyers remain active, BTC may continue to hold far above Ki’s $22,000 stress estimate. If ETF redemptions continue and long-term holders keep selling into a thinner bid, the market could remain under pressure even without a major protocol or macro shock.
The Strategy angle also remains important because the company is no longer viewed only as a buyer. Its first Bitcoin sale since 2022 showed that preferred-stock obligations and treasury mechanics can require small disposals, even while the company remains overwhelmingly long BTC.
Ki’s argument reframes the selloff around market structure. Bitcoin has not held up because old whales stopped selling. It has held up because newer institutional channels absorbed much of that supply. The next phase depends on whether those channels can keep doing the same job while BTC trades near $60,000, ETFs bleed capital, and Strategy’s funding model faces more scrutiny.
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