Bitcoin’s recent surge close to the important $80k resistance level is fueled by the futures market, the founder of CryptoQuant, Ki Young Ju, tweeted earlier today. The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization is currently trading around $78k at press time, after a failed breakout attempt at the key level. However, the top crypto executive believes a vital piece is missing from the puzzle needed to move past the crucial $80k support.
He tweeted:
“Bitcoin is currently futures-driven.
Open interest is rising, but on-chain apparent demand remains net negative despite ETF inflows and Saylor buys.
Historically, bear markets end when both spot and futures demand recover.”
 
In his tweet, Ki Young highlighted that even as futures open interest continued to rise and BlackRock and Saylor’s Strategy engaged in more high-profile spot buys, on-chain demand remained slightly negative, as shown by the grey areas on the graph. Overall, there is mixed conviction in the market, which is why bulls are hesitant to overcome the critical $80k price point.
Spot Demand Remains Weak Overall
While Bitcoin’s price trends have a history of being unpredictable, we are currently midway through a bearish portion of the cycle, and a major price reversal occurs only when there is significant demand in the market in both spot AND derivatives. CryptoQuant’s demand metric shows real Bitcoin moving in or out of wallets, excluding exchange activity, and there is simply not much to go for right now for the bulls.
Major spot buys, such as the $2 billion in positive ETF flows over the last 30 days and the recent $2.54 billion Strategy purchase, are not enough to change macro-level market sentiment on their own. Retail buying needs to step up, and that doesn’t appear to be the case here.
Past cycles, including 2022 and 2018, witnessed sustained rallies only after on-chain accumulation signaled broad conviction from retail and long-term holders, not just leveraged positioning. While the role of leveraged positions has increased in recent times, they are defined by profit-taking phases, so the current setup lacks that organic breadth.
Twitterati Respond
Users generally agreed with Ki Young’s take on the weak spot demand right now.
Based on the current situation, it is likely that the $80k resistance level will be a handful. Historically, bear markets typically resolve only after both spot and futures demand recover in tandem, and that is not what the data is suggesting right now.
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