Diesel Just Hit a Record $6.31 a Gallon and Some Analysts Think $7 Is Next

TLDR

• U.S. diesel hit a record $6.31 per gallon on September 16, 2026, up 68% from a year ago
• Supply disruptions include Strait of Hormuz closures, attacks on Russian refineries, and Saudi pipeline damage
• U.S. diesel inventories sit about 13% below the five-year average
• The EIA forecasts diesel will average $5.07 per gallon for 2026 and $4.40 in 2027
• Refinery stocks like Valero and Marathon Petroleum have surged over 135% year-to-date

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U.S. diesel prices have hit a new record, climbing to $6.31 per gallon as of September 16, 2026. That is up from $6.05 just days earlier and far above the $3.71 average seen a year ago.

BREAKING: US stations are running out of diesel. Stations in North Texas are now posting “OUT” on their diesel signs, and an Orlando, Florida station has blanked its diesel price to 0.00 with the pump dry today.

California stations already began posting “out of diesel” signs on… pic.twitter.com/wLjAhQivf6

— The Hormuz Letter (@HormuzLetter) September 17, 2026

The price first crossed the $6 mark on September 11, surpassing the previous record set in June 2022. Since then, it has continued to climb.

What Is Driving the Diesel Price Surge

The main cause is a global shortage of refined petroleum products. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has sharply reduced Middle Eastern oil and diesel exports.

Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries have also cut Russia’s refining capacity. Moscow has now banned diesel exports in response.

Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, which can move around 4 million barrels of oil per day, was attacked by drones on September 15. That added another layer of pressure to an already tight market.

Brent crude climbed to around $107.55 per barrel following the Saudi attack, while WTI moved above $103.

U.S. diesel inventories are sitting about 13% below the five-year average. The diesel crack spread, a measure of refinery profit margins, has reached a record high.

Gasoline prices are also rising. The national average hit $4.295 per gallon, up more than 40% since the start of the Iran war.

What Analysts Expect Next

The Energy Information Administration raised its 2026 U.S. retail diesel forecast to $5.07 per gallon in its September 9 outlook. It also lifted its 2027 estimate to $4.40 per gallon.

Those forecasts assume Middle Eastern oil flows gradually recover and global inventories rebuild. The EIA expects U.S. distillate inventories to remain below the five-year low through much of 2027.

Some analysts are now speculating diesel could reach $7 per gallon if disruptions continue. In California, prices have already approached $8 per gallon.

The International Energy Agency said a recovery in Mideast oil flows is not expected until next year. Very large crude carrier shipping rates have risen to all-time highs.

Chevron’s CEO said the global market buffers that had helped limit crude price increases have now largely run out.

Refiner Stocks Are Benefiting

Investors have taken notice. Valero Energy is up 135.2% year-to-date and 12.1% this month alone.

Marathon Petroleum has gained 143.8% year-to-date. Phillips 66 is up nearly 100% for the year.

Energy ETFs like the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR and the VanEck Oil Refiners ETF have also drawn interest from investors seeking broad energy sector exposure.

Beyond fuel prices, economists say there are few clear signs yet that diesel costs are pushing up prices for other goods and services. Whether that changes depends on how long supply disruptions last.