TAMPA, FLORIDA – DECEMBER 18: Chris Godwin #14 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers reacts after a play during the second quarter in the game against the Cincinnati Bengals at Raymond James Stadium on December 18, 2022 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Douglas P. DeFelice/Getty Images)
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It’s finally here. Time to bring the early looks to the table. This is Week 1 for everyone, which means that the players’ prices were established in July; take advantage of that. We know (for the most part) who will be the value picks and who is undervalued; take advantage of that.
And as far as players go, we are on the same footing with the sharks. Everyone is going off of what they think will happen because of last year’s stats, but no one really knows. What we do know is that, historically, since the NFL has gone to three games in the preseason, Week 1 games typically go under their projected point total about 60% of the time; take advantage of that.
It’s Week 1; don’t be afraid of the chalk plays (yes, talking about you, Jahmyr Gibbs) and don’t be afraid to get different. Let’s get going.
DraftKings Main Slate
There are 12 games on the main slate this week. You have to decide if you are playing: a) cash games or tournaments; and b) if you are selecting your player pool by game environment or matchups, or a combination of both.
Game Environment
When you rely on game environment, your player pool strategy is taking into consideration the complete context of the game. You are considering the pace of the game and the overall scoring potential of specific matchups.
In this case, you are targeting specific games. This usually means targeting games that have an over/under above 47 points. Being Week 1 and all there are other games that have shootout potential, but these are the games that Vegas predicts will have the highest total.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals -3.5, 50.5
New Orleans Saints @ Detroit Lions -7, 49.5 o/u
Chicago Bears -3 @ Carolina Panthers, 47.5 o/u
Baltimore Ravens -3.5 @ Indianapolis Colts, 47.5 o/u
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Chargers -9.5, 47.5 o/u
Note that the Chargers have the highest predicted team point total.
Matchups
This is exactly as it sounds: you are laser-focused on the matchups and raw scores of each player.
Here are some of the better matchups.
Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow v Tampa Bay Buccaneers
BALTIMORE, MD – NOVEMBER 24: Quarterback Geno Smith #7 of the New York Jets walks off the field after throwing an interception in the fourth quartrer of the Jets 19-3 loss to the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium on November 24, 2013 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)
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Geno Smith @ Tennessee Titans
Jalen Hurts v Washington
Justin Herbert v Arizona
Running Backs
Bucky Irving @ Cincinnati
Tony Pollard v New York Jets
Tyjae Spears v New York Jets
EAST RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY – OCTOBER 20: Saquon Barkley #26 of the Philadelphia Eagles runs the ball against the New York Giants during the third quarter at MetLife Stadium on October 20, 2024 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Luke Hales/Getty Images)
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Saquon Barkley v Washington
Omarion Hampton v Arizona
Wide Receivers
EAST RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY – DECEMBER 1: Wide receiver Garrett Wilson #5 of the New York Jets misses a catch in the end zone during the first half of an NFL football game against the Seattle Seahawks, at MetLife Stadium on December 1, 2024 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Brooke Sutton/Getty Images)
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Garrett Wilson @ Tennessee
DeVonta Smith v Washington
Tetairoa McMillan v Bears
Amon-Ra St. Brown v New Orleans
Tee Higgins v Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tight Ends
Dallas Goedert v Washington
GPP Tournaments
In tournaments, you want to be different. Don’t be afraid of chalk, but this week, make yourself different. Ownership projections (%) courtesy of One Week Season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals
If you believe in the 50.5-point total, this is the game to stack. Keep in mind, in Week 1, approximately 60% of games go under their point total.
CINCINNATI, OHIO – AUGUST 10: Quarterback Baker Mayfield #6 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers warms up before the preseason game against the Cincinnati Bengals at Paycor Stadium on August 10, 2024 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Jason Mowry/Getty Images)
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QB Baker Mayfield, $5,900 (4.58%) + WR Chris Godwin $5200 (6.82%) / WR Ja’Marr Chase $7800 (30.0%) + WR Tee Higgins $6300 (11.68%)
Mayfield is 3-0 in Week 1 games while he has been at Tampa Bay. He has nine touchdowns and zero interceptions with a 114.5 passer rating in Week 1 games.
Joe Burrow is 2-4 in Week 1 games. He has five touchdowns and five interceptions with a 76.4 passer rating.
*This build leaves you $4,960 for each of the remaining five positions. *
New Orleans Saints @ Detroit Lions
Game played indoors. Last season, the Saints were 10th in offensive plays per game (63.2), and the Lions were 14th (62.5).
QB Tyler Shough $5600 (9.11%) + WR Devaughn Vele $3500 (6.99%) + TE Juwan Johnson $3700(11.37%)/ $ RB Jahmyr Gibbs $8000 (44.59%) + WR Jameson Williams $6000 (8.98%)
TAMPA, FLORIDA – DECEMBER 07: Tyler Shough #6 of the New Orleans Saints celebrates a touchdown against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the fourth quarter at Raymond James Stadium on December 07, 2025 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)
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Jordyn Tyson will not play in this game. Last season without Tyson, Johnson averaged six targets per game, finished with 102 targets and 77 receptions. He was fifth among all tight ends in yards after catch (362), had a 21% first-read target share, and this was on a team that was fourth in pass plays per game.
*This build leaves you $5800 for each of the remaining four positions.*
Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers
TE Colston Loveland $ 5300 (9.17%) / WR Tetairoa McMillan $6100 (9.65%)
I am less bullish ( or bearish) on stacking this game. But remember, head coach Ben Johnson has stated that one of his goals for the season is to beat the 37.9 points per game record of the 2013 Denver Broncos.
Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts
HOUSTON, TEXAS – DECEMBER 25: Lamar Jackson #8 of the Baltimore Ravens runs the ball for a touchdown during the third quarter against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium on December 25, 2024 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images)
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QB Lamar Jackson $6800 (5.54%) + Baltimore Defense $3000 (3.02%)
New head coach Jesse Minter and new offensive coordinator Declan Doyle on the Ravens side, whereas the Colts are bringing back the 2025 gang. The watch for this game is the Ravens’ new center Jovaugh Gwyn versus the Colts’ DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart.
* This leaves you $5743 for each of the remaining seven positions. And notice that you have gone under 10% ownership with these two picks. Get you some chalk.*
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Chargers
QB Jacoby Brissett $5100 (1.61%) + WR Marvin Harrison Jr. $5000 (5.86%)/ RB Omarion Hampton $6800(12.79%)
Because they were in a negative game script more often than not, the 2025 Cardinals with Brissett under center averaged a league-leading 41.6 pass plays per game and were third in pace of play (2.07).
The Cardinals do have a new head coach, Mike LaFleur, and a new offensive coordinator, Nathaniel Hackett. They are also expected to trot out first-round selection Jeremiyah Love, who was limited in preseason with an ankle injury.
*This leaves you $5517 for the remaining six players.*
Cash Games
Cash games are where you are going to employ your matchup strategy, looking for the best raw-number players.
DETROIT, MICHIGAN – DECEMBER 05: Jahmyr Gibbs #26 of the Detroit Lions scores a touchdown against the Green Bay Packers during the second quarter in the game at Ford Field on December 05, 2024 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Nic Antaya/Getty Images)
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QB Justin Herbert $6100 (10.19%) RB Jahmyr Gibbs $8000 (44.59%) TE Michael Mayer $2900 (31.65%)
Per OneWeekSeason.com: Herbert’s projections are 20.08 fantasy points with a ceiling of 28.26; Gibbs projects at 22.92 with a ceiling of 30.36, and Mayer projects at 7.58 with a ceiling of 12.58.
This build allows you $5500 for each of the remaining six positions.
DFS Week 1
We are using last year’s stats to predict this week’s outcomes. It’s not a great system, but it slightly evens the playing field.
Remember your basics: when playing GPP, you need to differentiate yourself from the pack. It doesn’t necessarily mean avoiding all chalk at all costs; it just means getting creative with your non-chalk pieces, and even how you stack your chalk pieces can give you leverage.
When playing Cash games, go for a high ceiling but also a high floor.
As always, good luck!




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