Eric Swalwell has resigned from Congress amid sexual misconduct allegations, and the Polymarket contract “Eric Swalwell out as US Rep by May 31” sits at a definitive 100% YES, fully resolved.
Swalwell’s formal resignation and Governor Gavin Newsom’s subsequent scheduling of a special election drove the market to its final state. Traders had already priced in a strong probability of his exit as multiple allegations emerged, and the resignation confirmed what the market expected.
The “Eric Swalwell out as US Rep by May 31” market link saw no active trading in the past 24 hours, as the outcome was already fully priced in. Market interest had peaked when the allegations first surfaced, with odds quickly moving to 100% as resignation became imminent.
A resolved market with zero trading volume means participants universally accepted the outcome. Swalwell made no retraction, and no judicial dismissal intervened, so the price stayed locked at 100%. A YES share priced at 100¢ offered no payout, since the market had already correctly predicted the result.
Watch for updates on the special election Governor Newsom has scheduled. The June 2 primary will be the next major event in the race to fill Swalwell’s congressional seat.
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