TLDR
- Oppenheimer upgraded Fastly (FSLY) to Outperform from Perform with a $35 price target.
- FSLY rose 6% in pre-market trading and sits near $27.88, 16.8% below its April high of $33.50.
- Oppenheimer expects Q3 revenue at the high end of the $184 million to $190 million guidance range.
- The firm expects 2026 revenue growth to be raised to between 20% and 21%.
- The stock is up 173% this year, but a $1,000 investment made five years ago would now be worth $673.67.
Fastly (FSLY) stock rose 6% in pre-market trading on October 9 after Oppenheimer upgraded the company to Outperform from Perform. The stock was trading at $27.88, still 16.8% below its 52-week high of $33.50 from April 2026.
Oppenheimer set a price target of $35. That target prices the stock at seven times estimated 2027 enterprise value to sales, below the 10.6-times peer median.
Analyst Param Singh said the firm’s own checks show third-quarter average deal sizes grew. He pointed to customers buying more of Fastly’s newly launched security tools.
Fastly moved its AI Runtime, AI Firewall, and API Enforcement suites to general availability in September. Oppenheimer sees an unpriced revenue ramp from these products.
The reasoning is tied to agentic AI traffic. As that traffic grows, network volumes rise, and demand for Fastly’s bot management tools is expected to follow.
What Oppenheimer Expects
Singh projects third-quarter revenue at the upper end of Fastly’s $184 million to $190 million guidance range. He also expects management to lift its full-year 2026 revenue growth outlook to between 20% and 21%.
That forecast includes early AI monetization. It also counts about $10 million in revenue tied to Grand Theft Auto VI.
Over the next few years, Oppenheimer expects high-teens to low-20s growth. The firm believes the market underrates that path and expects the stock to re-rate if management delivers on growth and margin expansion.
Other analysts are less enthusiastic. RBC Capital kept a Sector Perform rating with a $25 target after Fastly’s investor day. DA Davidson kept a Neutral rating and cut its target to $23 from $26 on valuation concerns.
BofA Securities raised its target to $22 from $20. The firm cited Fastly’s move toward a unified edge platform and three straight quarters of steady revenue growth.
A Volatile Stock
Fastly has had 75 moves greater than 5% over the past year. That makes a 6% pop a fairly normal day for this name.
The last big move came 15 days ago, when the stock fell 4.2%. Rising yields pressured tech stocks, and investors took profits after the investor day.
The day before that drop, the stock had surged about 14.3%. Management had laid out long-term financial targets through 2029, including a revenue growth range of 14% to 21%.
DA Davidson has said AI agents could add some traffic for Fastly. The firm does not expect large revenue gains from it in the near term.
Social media chatter has also linked Fastly to traffic from Meta’s Muse AI assistant. That talk has drawn extra attention from traders.
Fastly has not been profitable over the past twelve months. Analysts expect it to reach profitability this year, and 11 have revised earnings estimates upward.
Fastly is up 173% since the start of the year. The stock was trading near $27.88 in the latest session.
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