Former Meta and Google engineer Patrick Shyu has warned that Bitcoin faces two long-term threats from quantum computing and the declining rewards paid to miners.
Shyu, known online as TechLead, called quantum security and miner incentives “two ticking time bombs” that Bitcoin has yet to defuse. He argued that the network lacks a cohesive migration plan for wallets exposed to future quantum attacks.
His second concern centers on Bitcoin’s security budget. Roughly 95% of the 21 million BTC supply has already been issued, while transaction fees have not developed into the consistent revenue source that miners would need as block subsidies decline.
Miners secure the network, and they have to get paid in two ways: either newly minted coins or your transaction fees,” Shyu said. “The fee economy they would depend on never showed up.
Shyu warned that lower fee revenue could force miners offline as future halvings reduce newly issued BTC, creating what he described as a “slow death spiral” of weaker mining participation and network security.
The warning follows Shyu’s June disclosure that he had sold his Bitcoin position after suffering heavy losses from leveraged exposure during the market downturn. Bitcoin has since remained near the low-$60,000 range, where Fidelity sees BTC approaching a long-term floor.
Bitcoin Developers Debate Quantum Migration
Bitcoin’s quantum debate centers on signatures whose public keys have already been exposed onchain. A sufficiently advanced quantum computer could use those public keys to calculate the corresponding private keys and take control of the affected coins.
BIP-360 proposes a new Pay-to-Merkle-Root output that removes Taproot’s key-path spending option. BIP-361 proposes a staged retirement of quantum-vulnerable ECDSA and Schnorr spending paths after a post-quantum alternative becomes available.
Neither proposal has an activation schedule or network-wide approval. The debate has already expanded into a dispute over whether coins that fail to migrate should eventually be frozen, including older Pay-to-Public-Key holdings.
Charles Hoskinson has challenged the emerging approach, arguing that Bitcoin’s proposed quantum response could turn dormant holdings into a property-rights dispute involving millions of exposed BTC.
Miner Revenue Remains Tied To Block Subsidies
Bitcoin miners currently receive a 3.125 BTC subsidy for each block, plus transaction fees. The subsidy will fall to 1.5625 BTC at the next halving, expected in 2028.
Fee revenue has produced short-lived spikes during periods of heavy demand for block space, but the subsidy still accounts for most miner revenue during quieter conditions.
Mining economics weakened sharply during Bitcoin’s recent price decline. The network recorded a 10.09% difficulty reduction in June after lower hashprice and tighter operating margins pushed hashrate offline.
The next halving is expected at block 1,050,000, cutting newly issued Bitcoin per block from 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC.
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