What to know:
- France blocks Polymarket, citing illegal gambling operations and growing consumer protection concerns nationwide.
- Regulators warn prediction markets could enable insider trading and manipulation through privileged information access.
- European authorities intensify scrutiny as prediction market platforms face expanding regulatory restrictions across regions.
France has ordered internet service providers (ISPs) to block access to online prediction market Polymarket, stepping up its crackdown on platforms that allow users to bet on future events.
The National Gambling Authority (ANJ) said the platform was offering unauthorized gambling services and exposing users to significant financial risks.
The regulator said its president ordered the block on July 16, describing Polymarket as an illegal betting platform targeting a large French audience.
The website will remain blocked until it complies with French gambling laws, an ANJ spokesperson said. Polymarket did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Source: Reuters
The move strengthens France’s enforcement efforts after authorities banned financial transactions to the platform in November 2024.
Despite that restriction, visits from French internet users continued to rise, reaching nearly 579,000 last month, according to the regulator.
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France Raises Manipulation Concerns Over Polymarket
According to the French regulators, certain prediction markets may become easy targets for manipulation. The ANJ has cited examples of weather-based contracts, saying that individuals who have access to confidential meteorological data have a higher chance of success. It has also stated that promoting illegal gambling sites is a criminal act.
These concerns have only been strengthened by recent events. This year, the French Meteorological Service Météo-France complained about one of their systems being hacked in relation to trades made on Polymarket.
In the United States, the government has also investigated individuals suspected of exploiting confidential information for making profits in prediction markets.
Europe Tightens Rules on Prediction Markets
The move by France is part of a general trend towards regulating prediction markets, which have not been limited to bets on sports but have spread to elections, geopolitics, economic statistics, and even weather predictions.
The advocates for such systems say that the platforms help in more accurate forecasting based on the expectations of the market.
The regulatory landscape is becoming increasingly strict over the past few months. In Spain, Polymarket and its competitor Kalshi were temporarily blocked in May.
The United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued new regulations for the industry in June. Several European countries, including Germany and Italy, have also put restrictions on prediction markets.
Polymarket has seen its annual revenue exceed $1 billion, thus showing how rapidly the industry is growing despite the challenges posed by regulation.
What Happens Next?
France’s blocking of the site will continue till Polymarket becomes compliant with French gambling laws or obtains permission to conduct its business legally.
This step may serve as an inspiration for regulators from other European countries to take such steps in their fight against illegal prediction markets. As far as the prediction market sector is concerned, the case indicates that regulation will only become tougher.
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