Galaxy Digital’s Head of Research, Alex Thorn, has revealed that they have lowered their odds of the CLARITY Act passing this year to 60%. He cited the Senate’s tight calendar as the reason for this decision, as this could make it harder for them to set a floor time to deliberate on the bill and eventually pass it.
Galaxy Digital Lower Odds Of CLARITY Act Passing This Year
In an X post, Thorn shared a research note stating that they had lowered their odds of the crypto bill passing this year to 60%, just two weeks after raising their estimate to 75%. He noted that the reason was mostly technical, as the Senate is running out of usable days, and that this week has made it worse.
Notably, Galaxy Digital had given the CLARITY Act only a 55% chance of passing this year prior to the crypto bill’s markup last month, but raised it to 75% as the bill advanced out of the Senate Banking Committee. As CoinGape reported, the bill has now been added to the Senate calendar, with Senator Cynthia Lummis’ hint that a floor vote could happen before the July 4 recess.
Thorn reiterated in the research note that their concern is less about the substance of the crypto bill and more about the number of days left to act on it. Notably, crypto traders are also losing optimism that U.S. President Donald Trump will sign the bill into law this year.
Polymarket data shows only a 54% chance that President Trump will sign the bill into law this year, down from a May high of around 74%. Crypto prices have coincidentally crashed alongside these odds, with Bitcoin crashing to $59,000 for the first time in two years.
How The Picture Has Worsened For The Crypto Bill
Thorn noted in his post that the Senate calendar has always been one of the biggest hurdles for the CLARITY Act, and now, that picture has worsened. He explained that the FISA reauthorization vote failed, which means that this will likely be the Senate’s focus next week, and it comes after they already lost a week on the anti-weaponization fund.
In addition to the tight Senate calendar, the Galaxy Digital executive mentioned that there were no reports this week outlining a path forward on outstanding issues such as ethics or illicit finance, which could signal that they have yet to make progress. Thorn added that he is still optimistic, but the timing matters a lot now, and the odds could shift significantly as the calendar progresses.
JPMorgan also recently echoed this sentiment, warning that the window to pass the CLARITY Act has narrowed. They noted that the crypto bill is now at risk of failing to pass this year, with the midterm elections posing a major roadblock.
August has emerged as a potential deadline for the Senate to pass the CLARITY Act, or risk losing this legislative window as lawmakers enter a 4-week recess after the first week of August. Meanwhile, these senators are likely to turn their attention to the November midterm elections after the recess.
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