Germany out on pens, Polymarket keeps 5+ missed kicks favored at 45.45%

Germany Knocked Out by Paraguay on Penalties, Keeping Polymarket’s “5+ Missed Penalties” World Cup Ladder in Play

Germany’s World Cup 2026 exit on penalties against Paraguay put missed spot-kicks back in focus for bettors tracking shoot-outs. On Polymarket, the ladder market “World Cup: Number of Missed Penalties” continued to price the 5+ missed penalties threshold as the most likely outcome.

Key Takeaways

• Polymarket prices “5+ missed penalties” at 45.45% Yes versus 54.55% No.
• A high-profile penalty shoot-out has kept attention on the missed-penalties ladder even as pricing remains mixed across higher thresholds.
• The contract is scheduled to resolve by 2026-07-20T03:59:00+00:00, and the headline threshold is down 9.05 percentage points over 24 hours.

Germany were eliminated from the 2026 World Cup after drawing 1-1 with Paraguay and losing 4-3 on penalties in a last-32 match. Julio Enciso put Paraguay in front before Kai Havertz equalised, sending the tie to extra time and then a shoot-out. In the shoot-out, Havertz and Nick Woltemade had penalties saved by goalkeeper Orlando Gill, while Jonathan Tah blasted his attempt over, setting up Jose Canale’s winning kick. A Tah header in extra time was ruled out by VAR for a foul, and Paraguay advanced to face either France or Sweden in the last 16. The report said Germany had 78% possession but failed to register a shot on target in the first half.

Polymarket Data: $570,263 Matched Volume as “5+ Missed Penalties” Sits at 45.45% Yes After a 9.05-Point 24H Drop

Polymarket shows $570,263 in matched volume on the “World Cup: Number of Missed Penalties” ladder, with the leading line “5+ missed penalties” priced at 45.45% Yes and 54.55% No. Higher rungs remain heavily skewed to the No side: “10+ missed penalties” trades at 2.35% Yes versus 97.65% No, while “20+ missed penalties” is 0.60% Yes and 99.40% No. The far tail is priced as extremely unlikely, with “40+ missed penalties” at 0.05% Yes against 99.95% No and “50+ missed penalties” at 0.70% Yes versus 99.30% No. The 24-hour move shows a 9.05 percentage point drop in the headline threshold, signaling softer conviction despite substantial liquidity.

Watch whether the implied odds for 5+ missed penalties stabilizes or continues to drift after the latest 24-hour drop, and whether volume concentrates around mid-range rungs such as 10+ as the tournament progresses toward the 2026-07-20T03:59:00+00:00 resolution time.

Beyond the Shootout: Other High-Volume Polymarket Contracts Bettors Are Watching Across Geopolitics and Macro

Away from the penalty-focused ladder, liquidity on Polymarket is clustering around broader tournament outcomes and player awards. “World Cup Winner” is led by France at 28.95% alongside $3,510,941,627 in volume, while “World Cup: Golden Boot Winner” has Lionel Messi atop the board at 52.45% on $38,604,828. Traders are also leaning into path-to-qualification markets, with Canada priced at 100.0% in “World Cup: Nation To Reach Round of 16” on $3,960,657, and Europe (UEFA) leading at 60.5% in “Which continent will win the World Cup?” with $7,862,748 matched.

Odds Trend

By the Numbers

• Platform: Polymarket
• Market: World Cup: Number of Missed Penalties
• Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.
• Resolution window: Jul 20, 2026 (UTC)
• Status: Active (open for trading)
• Volume: ~$570,263

Top strike rungs

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Sources

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